Right on the money. This sub tends to assume that just because a technology exists that all of our institutions will immediately respond. That's just not how the world works. It took 20 years for many governments, corporations, etc. to even adopt the Internet, which was proven tech in the 90s. Politics and culture just don't move that fast.

Because capitalism? We already don't keep everyone alive, fed and sheltered. Poverty and inequality are rampant both globally and within countries. It seems far more likely that extremely powerful technologies controlled by the biggest profit-seeking corporations will exacerbate these problems rather than solve them.

There is a strong case to be made for UBI or a more expanded social safety net more generally, but that also requires new revenues. How confident are you that governments will be willing to tax and/or expropriate the economic benefits of AI in order to redistribute it? I'm not saying it won't happen, but that is absolutely not the political-economic trajectory of the past 50 years in most Western countries.

I'm curious about the demographics of this sub. Based on the subject, the tone, and the fact that it's Reddit, it's probably mostly young men in the U.S. Occupationally, probably a mix of tech sector and students. As far as I can tell, there are not a lot of people with a strong grasp of history, economics or politics (most obvious from the highly contestable assumption that UBI is somehow inevitable).

Not trying to slag anyone. I just agree with OP's general point that social, economic, and political factors play just as big a role as the underlying technology in determining real-world impacts.

I want to agree with u/Iffykindofguy but I think the generational distinction is important. Like, sure, people aren't going to stop going out for drinks with their friends just because there is an AI option all of a sudden. But for future generations who haven't established those social/community bonds? It doesn't seem so far-fetched. Still, that sort of cultural shift won't happen nearly as fast as people are predicting.

It's pretty stunning what the GPT models can / will be able to do with language, but we're still a long way from competing with professional writers. There's a big difference between coherent prose (which anyone with a bit of experience can write) and creating compelling original characters or tapping into the human condition. Great novels accomplish a lot more than just "good writing".

That being said, there is a lot of trash that gets published anyway! The AI may not be coming for Stephen King, but it will be coming for a lot of the mediocre stuff on Amazon.