ExParrot1337 t1_je40jc0 wrote

Also up till a couple of years ago, strategic arms treaties meant that US inspectors were looking at all those warheads and missiles regularly. I am prepared to accept they might notice a fault that would turn a 1Mt warhead into a 50kt warhead and 'forget' to tell the Russians but if there was the slightest chance they were in dangerous shape, you bet they'd flag that up the chain.

Betting the Russian arsenal is in as poor shape as the rest of the military is a dumb idea.


ExParrot1337 t1_iu864bt wrote

Now that the deadline is set I would expect to see, in practice, all the major manufacturers will shift entirely to EV well ahead of it. They're not going to be running a factory making ICE vehicles the day before the ban goes into effect.

Now, every dollar they spend on R&D and plant for ICE is a dollar that needs a reeeeally short ROI to not be wasted. Young engineering talent will be as interested in working on them as young computer engineers are in punched cards. And if battery costs fall a little more, the cars will be outright cheaper to manufacture than ICE anyway so there is no incentive to keep building them for other markets either.

In summary, this is the final boot the industry needed, and I think ICE sales will dry up years before the actual deadline.