Foundation12a OP t1_j24xxm9 wrote

AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.

Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.

In the first week of June we had:

Then later in that month there would be:

AI generated podcasts:

AI learned how to play Minecraft:


A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM.

And that was only up to the end of June.

Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:


Foundation12a OP t1_j24txwp wrote

That is literally someone claiming that:

"Idk why, but I have a feeling AI will continue to progress, but not at the rate it did this year; the bar was set high in 2022."

All you said was you haven't see anyone claim it, well there is someone doing exactly that. Instead of reading the url, you maybe should have read the comment?


Foundation12a t1_j15icr1 wrote

Most of these functions are also quite simple which means it takes less compute and costs less to replace them, as the technology advances this cost keeps going down because the requirements to perform these tasks do not change but the quality of the technology improves regardless.

We definitely do not need super intelligent AI to perform most of these tasks and what we do need becomes more and more affordable and accessible in shorter and shorter time spans.


Foundation12a t1_iycpmuk wrote

Except that will never happen due to mass proliferation of the technology, there are already billions of phones and a phone that costs a 1/10th of a flagship 5 years ago already outperforms it in all metrics.

Your given scenario is therefore impossible, any company that charges that much for a phone when there are literally thousands of alternatives will go bankrupt and it's customers will buy elsewhere.


Foundation12a t1_ixy243o wrote

And how many dreamcasts were ever produced? Less than 10 million units. There are literally billions of laptops and smartphones there are too prolific a technology to ever go extinct. A specific model may become rare or unavailable but a smartphone or laptop will always be something you can buy.