Hammurabi42

Hammurabi42 t1_ja0gllx wrote

Actually, no. Usually when we hear about these "end of the world" groups they are based around religious beliefs but the group studied in the book was based around UFOs.

"The Great Disappointment" was over a hundred years earlier. The world sure does seem to end often.

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Hammurabi42 t1_j9z7o8w wrote

Imagine you had a belief. Something like "The world will end on November 3rd."

Now, Nov. 3rd comes and goes and the world doesn't end.

What you might think would happen is you would realize you were mistaken and admit you were wrong and move on. However, if the original belief was something very important to you, or something that you had made part of your personality, then you may have a great deal of trouble letting that belief go. You are in a state of cognitive dissonance.

It should be noted that cognitive dissonance is an almost entirely subconscious thing. If you were fully aware it was happening, it would be easier to resolve.

What can cognitive dissonance lead to? Well, in my example above the person could deny they made a prediction, insist they didn't mean the current Nov. 3rd but some future Nov. 3rd, or maybe insist the world really did "end" but in a spiritual or metaphysical way that only special people like them have noticed.

Note: my example above is (loosly) based on a real study published in a book called "When Prophesy Fails" written in the 1950's that popularized the term "cognitive dissonance."

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Hammurabi42 t1_iz3yh07 wrote

So a pretty clear flaw in this study is they placed their collection apparatus directly in front of the instrument bell. This is fine for brass instruments, but for woodwinds a large amount of the sound (and therefore air) comes out of the keys. This is not accounted for or addressed in the study, as far as I read. This also explains why bell covers were effective with brass instruments but not for woodwinds.

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