InvisibleWrestler

InvisibleWrestler t1_j52zfv2 wrote

Companies that have already invested in big machines or equipment that need humans to operate will move to full automation very slowly. If a company just bought many human driven trucks it'll take them long time to switch to fully automated trucks or to upgrade already purchased ones. If a manufacturing plant has been designed with human workers in mind it'll take time and more investment to get full automation. And we're still long way from affordable humanoid robots.

On the other hand if some simple AI cloud subscription could automate the work of an office worker, call center worker, accountant or programmer, that would happen a lot faster.

IMHO office jobs will start getting automated on a large scale in a few years. And a lot earlier than truck or bus drivers.

Aspirational jobs that require a degree and student debt are more at a risk than manual labour.

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InvisibleWrestler t1_j1ft5wj wrote

We don't even need AGI at this point to do that. Most jobs (emphasis on most) that can be done sitting in front of a computer can be done by something like chatGPT3 or GPT 4. Or atleast make one worker productive enough to drastically reduce the number of employees.

Similarly self driving and other similar automation may be able to reduce physical labour jobs but that's most likely going to require AGI and advanced robotics.

At this point white collar office workers seem easier to automate than even bus and truck drivers.

Also, once this wave of automation starts in offices, "bullshit jobs" will be wiped out.

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InvisibleWrestler t1_irylxgx wrote

I've very limited understanding of economics, finance and commerce. Anything beyond simple barter system is difficult for me to picture. So I can't really make sense of how trade, banking, capital accumulation etc. will work in future with AGI. How UBI will be arranged by government if people can't pay taxes? Will they just print money? What happens to poor countries whose economy is built around exporting services or goods to the Western countries?

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InvisibleWrestler t1_iru288d wrote

What others say. If machines are as intelligent as humans or more than us then we can't really compete with them. So it should be that everything gets automated. I don't really understand economics so I don't know how capitalism and ownership of such automation will work. Or how that'll impact average person's life.

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