After posting this here I decided to ask chatgpt something similar. I am continually floored by how good it is every time I use it. For those interested: https://ibb.co/4F1QPJ7

If one is trying to model something where the “correct” answer for a given set of features is inherently probabilistic—for example the outcome of a baseball plate appearance—how should you tell a neural network to grade it’s accuracy?

For those who aren’t familiar with baseball, the most likely outcome for any plate appearance — even the leagues best batter against the leagues worst pitcher — is some kind of out. Generally somewhere on the order of 60-75% that will be the outcome. So I’m realizing that the most “accurate” set of predictions against literally any dataset of at bats were to predict “out” for every one.

What I’m realizing is that the “correct” answer I’m looking for is a set of probabilities. But how does one apply, say, a loss function involving categorical cross entropy, in any kind of meaningful way? Is there even a way to do supervised learning when the data points “label” isn’t the actual probability distribution but rather one collapsed event for each “true” probability distribution?

Am I even making sense?

Edit: I know I need something like softmax but when I start training it quickly spirals into a case of exploding gradients no matter what I do. I think it’s because the “labels” I’m using aren’t the true probabilities each outcome had, but rather a single hard max real life outcome that actually occurred (home run, out, double, etc).