The first point could potentially be explained by them having a higher % chance if they face USA or Australia in the second round. But yea the numbers don’t add up for the region so something seems a little off about the simulation.

Interesting. You can compare to the actual betting odds shown below. The simulator seems to treat the underdogs a little more favorably.

Brazil 27.3%

Argentina 16.1%

France 14.8%

Spain 11.8%

England 8.9%

Portugal 6.8%

Netherlands 4.7%

Croatia 2.5%

Japan 1.3%

Switzerland 1.3%

Morocco 1.1%

USA 1.0%

Senegal 0.9%

South Korea 0.6%

Poland 0.5%

Australia 0.4%