Ok. 2024 recession works with my thesis as well. There are a lot of negative headwinds, including the ones you mentioned. Let’s see what happens.

However, bad news can be good news or bad news throughout the year. Market sentiment is the only way to make money right now imo. Trend is your friend. It can be easy to find yourself biased trading right now. Bearish if you have extensive research and bullish if you don’t lol.

You are shorting too soon. Last year the bulls let bears run wild. This year the bulls have convinced themselves with statistics that benefit their own narrative.

“The market has only every been red for two years consecutive four times””X percentage of the time January is green, the year ends green”

These are all narratives that remove the underlying cause for the final result. WHY in these scenarios, did the year turn green? Did things change? More than likely the issues were resolved within the year leading to a green result.

If we analyze what the problem now and determine if we can resolve it in a year, it is more likely not possible. This will not stop the bulls from completely ignoring data that works against them.

Not only that but there are more bulls in general because things like DCAing exist. If you ignore last year, the past 10 years with easy monetary policy stonk only go up. This is indeed a form of recency bias, hence why bull only funds are shit like ARKK. They don’t know how to play downside because they became famous for the auto win buy button that lasted 10 years.

This week has shown something unprecedented. If a up day or down day are determined on a blackjack game. The bulls always get 20 on technicals ALONE. Every narrative, every earnings, everything is seen in bullish lenses. Fundamentals, mechanics, the option chain - all irrelevant.

In order for the stock market to go red in a day, EVERY SINGLE other bearish indicator must be active at once, oversold, bollinger bands, expensive calls, DXY/Vix pump…. If not the bulls buy it up and shrug it off.

This is how the crash will happen: EVERY SINGLE MACRO ITEM MUST COALESCE. Negative earnings, red chart, SPR drained and gas prices up, inflation up, layoffs, interest rate delay, credit card crisis, savings at new lower levels, liquidity crisis, housing crash, student loan repayments…. All of it. SPR being empty doesn’t even take place until early 2024.

Save most of your bear ammo for then. Play the bullish sentiment as it comes and goes.

Meta? Eewwww. TSLA>Meta ANYDAY. But if you want some nutty returns -> nuclear stonks….. but it’s going to take quite a while, DCA until explosion sort of deal.

Trucks can have that kind of pricing power because typically they are bought as a business expense. I expect retail sales to slow from trucks dramatically.

Also I don’t think comparing a truck to an electric car is helpful for prediction of TSLA performance.

Im not saying it’s time to lower prices right now. I just think there will be another time where lowering the price again might be necessary to make sales. Consumer spending power is peaking, not destroyed yet.

Americans are spending what they don’t have. Units will be sold until banks aren’t willing to lend anymore.

You mean the fact that Elon sell shares like crazy and keeps doing so? Oh wait he said he wouldn’t anymore and he’s not lying this time right?

No quarrels with the company but Elon is like a looming threat and boon at the same time. Imagine the stock price rn if he didn’t troll investors with twitter. Crazy.

Even without all that, still wouldn’t buy TSLA. Not yet, keyword: Yet. Consumer buying power is being demolished on a global scale. I just follow the cash and credit lines and a bubble is forming. Unless he cuts prices more idk how people are going to afford to pay. I don’t think the market has priced this in and others can’t convince me otherwise.