At least some good news!

No, junior in Accenture in EU poor country make $12 per hour. I suppose, they are cutting higher paying positions in US, UK, Ireland...

I think upper comment was sarcastic.

Nor with self hosted models...

Yes it is. I'm software dev with 15 years of experience and my lizard brain is also in getting worried about the future. I can go in management route, because I know how to do it, but I do like programming. It looks like, programming as carrier will be death in about 5 years. Anybody saying anything else is in denial. Did people saying the opposite tried copilot, or latest ChatGPT? It's crazy how good both of these tools are. And that is just beginning, DeepMind is going to release coding ML model, google have "secret" coding ML model. Then there will be open source implementation HuggingFace is currently working on and it's fully funded. I don't know what else to say...

No, really. If you ever work on big software projects, you would understand what just happened. There is a joke saying that 5% programmers are doing 90% of work. It is a joke, but it's not completely disconnected from reality. Programmers tend to over-complicate. They create mini project just because they feel they will learn new technology, language and they will put it on their CV. They introduce complex feature, because hey, it might be useful in the future. They are lazy. They are like kids sometimes and what they need is strong hand to shake them up and they will deliver. They will gladly work more hours if they feel it make sense or they are building something that have deeper meaning. This is what Musk is bringing to table. Deeper meaning to remaining programmers, building platform for free speech.

Yes, west and china population is declining rapidly. You can feel it in poorer EU countries that start to have shortage of workers for everything.

Hmm, you are making good points i would say. On the other hand when you have radical shift in short amount of time, like we can expect with language models that can code, will industries accommodate in same short amount of time? I don't know the answer.

There were neural networks hype in 70s, 80, until middle of 90s. They failed. Then we had 4GL languages which basically didn't deliver new value, stupid things like UML, SOA, BPEL, entity modeling, ... which basically just shifted complexity to higher layers and just create another layer of complexity in software systems.

Now we have no-code platforms which seems quite limited.

Codex is game changer. You can feel it when you use it.

Software is low hanging fruit because of excellent training data and recent language models progression (namely transformers). It have immens impact and good earning potential. Other areas don't have even close enough of freely available data (open versionig systems). And it looks like training ML models to code is not so hard. Coding will be solved maybe decade before anything else (doctors, laywers, accountants, more messy things without good training data). And there will be no UI in sight, what will we(coders) do then?

Interestingly ML experts are putting themselves out of work also with tools like auto ML.

What is cheaper: senior programer or intern with AI tool that cost 10$ and can code better than senior?

No, specifically graphical designs and coding are first thing to go obviously. Initially you will just see bunch of unemployed senior programmers, because it would be much cheaper and easier to hire intern + AI and she/he will be more effective and much, much cheaper than senior. I plan budgets for software projects, trust me i know how upper management thinks in regards of software projects and budgeting.

Exactly. I'm programer also. Being in the industry for 15 years and this advancement are scaring me. I was making same points you are making to people here on Reddit and in office. Barely nobody is concerned. It's freaky.

Look at cscarrierquestions somebody made argument about being concerned about the future with GitHub copilot being out and everybody was basically saying copilot is gimmick and coding is much harder.

But reality is that copilot is amazing and coding is not so hard.

It look like, programmers are used to be unreplaceable and expensive, not saying praised how smart they are. And now they cannot comprehend they are going to be replaced IN 5 YRARS if current progress continues.

Or majority of humans are programmed to downplay AI progress, so we serve as ideal AGI bootloader. Don't know what we are in this sub then. 😀