Not_Sure_68

Not_Sure_68 t1_j2fsna0 wrote

JPOW is the same dood that insisted inflation was transitory. I don't believe the fed because they lie all the time. Anyway, if they wished to fight price inflation then they'd move fed funds to a rate above price inflation and stop screwing around with silly 25 - 75 bp hikes.

Even at 425 to 450 bp on fed funds, which took nearly a year to get to btw, there's zero chance they'll get a handle on price inflation. Instead they're simply normalizing high levels of price inflation while slowing destroying debt and equity markets. Here I thought the fed always aimed for 2% price inflation to steal slowly from savers...now 2% has turned into 7% and people are happy when it stops going up for a couple months. lol

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Not_Sure_68 t1_j2er0zy wrote

Real rates are already way too high for an economy built upon cheap credit. The fed will pivot and light a fire under shares of overpriced tech shares like NVDA long before rate rises actually have a chance to arrest price inflation. Even the dishonest fed people know this that's why they incessantly lie about price inflation...which has clearly not been "transitory".

If you're going to short this sucker down 50% already, then you'd better watch the fed like a hawk as one whiff of backing off their token rate hikes could lead to a monster tech rally.

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Not_Sure_68 t1_j2e17yh wrote

Stocks have historically done very poorly in a rising rate + high inflationary environment. Though people are well trained to "buy the dips" it hasn't always worked out well. I personally think a policy of capital preservation may well trump equities for years to come as fiat currencies around the world are rapidly debased. This will become more obvious to Americans when the fed inevitably "pivots" and returns to their typical policy of easy liquidity.

I mean sure the fed is pretending like raising rates is going to "fix" the economy just as they pretended price inflation is transitory, but it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to see through these lies. Until interest rates are sustainably well above the rate of price inflation, I see no reason to conclude that equity markets should outperform tangible goods. ...and no I don't suggest buying the latest iphone piece of crap or some new sneakers.

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