My only thought is how messy the data are. As they mention in the study and the article, things like ghost guns, police mistrust, and the pandemic have made things particularly difficult to discern a baseline. So it's worth nothing that 22% fewer homicides "than predicted" doesn't necessarily mean that Safe Streets reduced homicides by 22%. We don't really know how effective it's been. But it does seem clear that there is a reduction, it's not just a displacement, its a reduction. So that's great!
Omnimark t1_jefogv8 wrote
Reply to comment by sit_down_man in Baltimore Safe Streets sites ‘clearly’ reduce homicides, shootings, Johns Hopkins evaluation finds by sit_down_man
My only thought is how messy the data are. As they mention in the study and the article, things like ghost guns, police mistrust, and the pandemic have made things particularly difficult to discern a baseline. So it's worth nothing that 22% fewer homicides "than predicted" doesn't necessarily mean that Safe Streets reduced homicides by 22%. We don't really know how effective it's been. But it does seem clear that there is a reduction, it's not just a displacement, its a reduction. So that's great!