>Wouldn't a low interest rate with changing unemployment be a pretty decent indicator that the link isn't very strong?

You still haven’t understood my argument.

> Yes. When unemployment spiked in ~2010 but inflation was at 1%

I’m not sure what you meant to say but that’s perfectly in line with what the Phillips curve would suggest.

Yes, the Phillips curve, I’m aware. I’m not sure that you’ve understood my question. My point was that interest rates have been kept near zero (and unemployment correspondingly low) for well over decade with little deviation, so it’s unlikely there’s any empirical evidence that an increase in unemployment won’t still have an impact on the inflation rate (because aside from the year or so post-covid, there hasn’t really been one). So to rephrase, sure, there’s evidence that low unemployment rates aren’t driving inflation as you would traditionally expect, but is there any evidence that an increase in unemployment isn’t still linked to a decrease in the inflation rate?

Of course, that’s all irrespective of the fact that the Phillips curve is an oversimplification and changes in the labor market are hardly the only means by which a change in the interest rate might mediate inflation. It’s not like open market operations don’t affect the money supply.

Is there any evidence that it's bidirectional? Powell made the claims you've referenced with regard to open market operations/low interest rates/low unemployment not resulting in increased inflation over the past decade, but I don't see any reason that that would necessarily imply that raising interest rates/high unemployment wouldn't still exert deflationary pressure.

Do you have a source? has production, or consumption, dropped in real terms since 2019 for instance?

But you’re just thinking about households. Manufacturing and shipping far outpace households for fuel consumption, and thus have a larger impact on fuel prices.

I’m not convinced. You don’t think a decrease in overall economic activity will result in a decrease in fuel consumption (i.e. demand for fuel)?

You entirely missed the point of that comment. Raising interest rates won’t reverse any inflation that’s already taken place, but it absolutely will slow down the rate of future inflation.