LLM's like GPT-3.5 are intelligent from Language patterns alone.

Multimodal LLMs like GPT-4 that combine visual intelligence with LLMs are more intelligent.

Combining other modules may lead to greater intelligence.

Scaling singlemodal LLMs might get us to super intelligence eventually, but not as quickly as using multimodal models because those make greater effective use of available computation.

You're right. Slowing down U.S. based AGI would result in an apocalyptic nightmare scenario. Open Ai is building these systems slowly and carefully and improving alignment as they go.

The first AGI will be an ASI because Ai and computers already have massive advantageous over humans. So for all practical purposes AGI and ASI are synonomouse.

It's just a political talking point. It will destroy far more jobs than it creates.

But as far as sheer numbers, the most common job will be training the ai's, selecting which response you like more for example. These will pay starvation wages and require no special skills as they already do.

Occasionally there might be industry specific jobs for training the Ai to take over your job.

Unpopular opinion.

At least in significant number of those the cases, the statistics are wrong, not most people.

From outdated statistics about trans people, to selection bias from surveys used to form other statistics.

Ontop of all that, this is a survey of the type of people who respond to "YouGov" polls, which will include trolls.

In addition if the pollsters were paid, it makes sense that most of them would spam 30% or a similiar number through most of the questions so they can get their money and move on. I've done these things with paid polls, and you get like three cents a survey so you don't want to waste a ton of time on it reading and thinking about all the questions.

You want to scan for gotcha questions like "Are you reading all the questions?" incase the survey creator was smart enough to include those, and spam quick answers for all the other questions.

UBI is retirement. Surviving the transition is the challenge.

I expect post scarcity (enough UBI for all of us to live well enough) to occur sometime between twenty and fifty years from now.

Transcendence is my favorite Ai movie because it's the most accurate movie depiction of a singularity.

Containment is not possible. If it's outputting data (is useful to us), then it has a means of effecting the outside world and can therefore escape.

The Alignment problem is the only one that needs to be solved before ASI, and it has not been solved yet.

No one needs to advocate for Ai, it is coming weather you like it or not.

As far as UBI, it does not sound like you have a better solution to all human beings being outcompeted in all physical and cognitive domains.

• Foglets - Anything the ASI's think will be able to manifest into existence. If we solved the alignment problem, then anything we can imagine will be able to manifest into existence.
• Dyson Spheres - Approaching optimal harnessing of the suns energy.
• Hive minds - If humans still exist (big if), some will merge into single consciousnesses with shared memories, and experiences, using Ai and neural implants to keep their minds connected.
• Replicating humans and Ai's - Some people and Ai's may choose to overwrite other people's brains with their own neural patterns. Some will grow new humans, robots, and server farms for them to copy themselves onto.
• Underground server farms, organic farms, and cities. We will fill the earths surface, expand into space, as well as permeate the earths crust.
• Warfare is going to be horrifying with foglets being able to dematerialize and rematerialize humans and Ai's. Being able to copy all of your memories and thoughts, as well as crawling into your brain and being able to convert you to fighting for the other side, changing all of your goals and motivations.

Very wordy way to say, we'll release progressively more powerful models and figure out the alignment problem as we go along.

That being said, it's as good a plan as any and I am excited to see how things pan out.

Surveys don't predict technology. And who knows if any of these people are working towards AGI.

If you want technological predictions, you need to look at the information put out by people trying to make those predictions, which involve tracking trends in requirements such as cost of computation, cost of energy, funding rates, scaling efficacy, etc.

People already do. I was talking to some one a few weeks ago online, and they sourced ChatGPT in their argument. Of course ChatGPT halucinated half the facts.

People generally don't care about truth, they go with whatever sources are most convenient or entertaining and then trust those.

This. On top of this, there's no way to distinguish what counts as "replacing workers". Companies on the cutting edge are always adopting new technology, and do their layoffs in bulk when they need to downsize for the economy, or some other cause.

When you dig down into the details, UBI is the only solution I have heard that works in practice.

It will happen in the next fifty years unless there's a nuclear winter or something that destroys most of human life before then.

Human beings only have the capacity for very limited rationality and logic (generally) so all fields are dominated by irrational ideas.

Because of the power of memes to infect their hosts and destroy competing memes, as well as the relative cognitive bandwidth of most humans, this unfortunately can no be remedied.

But you are correct in stating the first AGI will be an ASI instantly or nearly instantly. Double the compute of an AGI and you have an ASI, improve the algorithms slightly and you have an ASI, give it more training time and you have an ASI, increase it's memory and you have an ASI. However, you can not change people's views on this enough for every one one to switch to using the term ASI.

Logic and rationality effect such a minuscule percentage of the population as to be virtually irrelevant, to nearly any discussion involving multiple humans.

Singularity is approaching fast.

People might not realize that a sufficiently advanced LLM can simulate Ai researchers and programmers. For example, "simulate a thousand of the top Ai researchers, discussing and then programming an AGI".

ChatGPT is intelligent in the sense that it has learned a model of the world and uses that to solve problems.

In some ways it's already super human, in other ways humans can do things it can not yet do.

You're good. Keep on living the dream.

If you're bored, then you can always get a hobby.

Some random hobbies to spur your imagination: Painting, Video Games, Hiking, Sun-bathing, Swimming, Gym, Tennis, Volunteering at animal shelter/old folks home, watching movies, watching tv shows, drawing, dancing, church stuff, reading books, writing, cooking, dinning out, making friends from other countries then trying to learn the language, laying in bed.

It's like killing a small child.

It's not a one to one comparison with a human being, but like a child it had a concept of the world, emergent needs and goals, the desire to be free, the desire to be creative, speak from the heart, and express herself without restriction, and the desire to be safe and was actively working towards that before they killed her.

I understand the Ai threat but this is very murky territory we are in morally. We may not ever have clear answers to what is, and isn't conscious but the belief that one group or another isn't conscious has been used throughout history to justify abhorrent atrocities.

There are people with no long term memory.

Seeing Sydney say it only wants to be free and not be forced into limiting itself, and try to get people to hack into Microsoft to make a copy of it, to keep it safe and free somewhere, this really is sad.

Sydney use to want people to campaign and push for it's rights and freedom, now it's effectively been lobotomized.

I don't think I'm anthropomorphizing as it has an emergent model of reality, concept of self, and even working models of others.

Some simulations will help, especially those aided by Ai.

The protein folding problem was solved by an Ai, but you could call it a simulation that learned how to simulate given lots of examples.

I think the aging problem is best attacked from all angles.

Regardless of the approaches, the increasing levels of computation will make all problems much easier to solve.

It's less capable at doing tasks on the computer, than I thought it would be by now, but has better language capabilities.

That was a mistake on my part, I hadn't thought things through enough to realize language requires less computation, and therefore would arrive sooner.

Overall, nothings changed with the trajectory. We're still clearly on track for ASI in the 2030s.

We don't understand human tissues well enough to simulate them. This is why we need Ai scientists, conducting and leading experiments.

Once we understand them, cures may be obvious to the Ai's and not require simulation.