Dude, you redrew the trendline. Today was a clear breakout.

That said, I'm bearish. I'm expecting volume to pick up now, probably higher volume and higher prices till we come to a blow off top near the Aug peak of spy 426-ish. I'll be buying puts and add more to my portfolio as we over-extend upwards.

I'm seeing a dip followed by a mega rally after the Feb 1st fomc, leading into that blow off top. That said, if it's 25bps and a dovish jpow, we rally right then into the blow off top. Either way, next week will be an exciting one; I can roll my existing puts if it's 50bps/25 and a hawkish jpow or double down if it's 25bps and a dovish jpow.

Invalidation of my thesis would be 50bps and a continued rally closing the week green (invalidation towards the upside) or 25bps + dovish tone and a dump closing the week red (invalidation toward the 200 day moving average).

That's the big one; until the VIE structure is better defined with respect to the Chinese legislation, this is a speculative play only slightly better than crypto.

The bull case would be the CCP backing down and making this a legitimate way for non-Chinese to hold ownership in a Chinese company, but even as highly regarded as I am, I can't convince myself that this is happening with the current regime.

The bear case would be a crackdown (again), driving prices down (again)

I think OP is missing out on the worst-case scenario, though, where at any time, a simple statement from Xi could render BABA shares less valuable than the 10 or so bytes of storage space my trading app allocates to it

Ticker Date Strike(P for put, C for call).

So far these threads have been good to me, but maybe that because it is buying puts against a bear market.