Its worth noting this data starts right at the start of a relatively stable crime period. It hasn't always been this way. one article with a graph.
There are a few points of interest recently.
The 9-11 spike was a few thousand murders on the same day. easy explanation.
the dip in the 2008-2015 years.
the spike in the COVID era.
Studying violent crime in a global context reveals nearly all aspects of societal health matter in determining crime rates averaged over large areas. Governance, education access, inequality, economic conditions, cultural inertia, all of it matters. The emerging strategies for combating crime however are hyper localized, individual streets and blocks which have a particularly poor mix of attributes. brookings has decent work on this subject, the linked article starts off by dismissing several of the bad-faith arguments that popped up quickly in the other thread.
While national murder rates remain stable, those murders shifted dramatically from some cities to others, so explaining why the national rate went up or down is really an exercise in summing up studies in many of the largest cities.
It is not particularly surprising through this lens why crime rates spiked during COVID. Small businesses nestled throughout distressed communities went under during the shutdowns. Once lively blocks, storefronts, even single street corners turned from happy places to desolate in an instant. Social connections, a critical violence mitigator, was effectively forbidden.
SirJelly t1_is8hry2 wrote
Reply to comment by aidansean in [OC] Monthly US Homicides by aidansean
Its worth noting this data starts right at the start of a relatively stable crime period. It hasn't always been this way. one article with a graph.
There are a few points of interest recently.
Studying violent crime in a global context reveals nearly all aspects of societal health matter in determining crime rates averaged over large areas. Governance, education access, inequality, economic conditions, cultural inertia, all of it matters. The emerging strategies for combating crime however are hyper localized, individual streets and blocks which have a particularly poor mix of attributes. brookings has decent work on this subject, the linked article starts off by dismissing several of the bad-faith arguments that popped up quickly in the other thread.
While national murder rates remain stable, those murders shifted dramatically from some cities to others, so explaining why the national rate went up or down is really an exercise in summing up studies in many of the largest cities.
It is not particularly surprising through this lens why crime rates spiked during COVID. Small businesses nestled throughout distressed communities went under during the shutdowns. Once lively blocks, storefronts, even single street corners turned from happy places to desolate in an instant. Social connections, a critical violence mitigator, was effectively forbidden.