You should watch the Ilya interview. He's confident there's still plenty of room for growth with just text but the real advancements will be multi-modal training data. I'd also take a look at Cerebras hardware. There's plenty of room for advancement with training hardware as well. We've got a LOT of runway ahead before hitting any real blocks and by then I'm 100% sure we'll have already hit self-improving AGI.

Brother in 20 years you'll be in FDVR. What you're describing is coming much sooner.

Oh my God. That's insane. The Ship of Theseus begins.

You hit the nail on the head. Individual users and groups are cobbling together what could in fact be considered AGI as we speak. Anyone whose AGI prediction is later than 2024 might want to adjust it. Any sort of delay is ill advised. Most of these models still use GPT-4 at their core but I suspect once they're refined you could get away with something like Dolly for all but the most demanding problems and that's assuming someone doesn't bootstrap a self-improvement loop together that actually takes off.

As an example:

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/11zqsuy/maximalist_eb_volition_an_open_architecture_for/

While this is true at a surface level it's another exponential process (within reason and limited by logistics). You build your initial factory and every robot produced does nothing else but bolster the infrastructure necessary to build more robots until you hit some critical mass of production and then send them out to do everything else (all calculated and coordinated by the AGI). That's the smartest thing to do but it relies on the government pulling their heads out of their ass. Instead we'll probably continue to rely on capitalism and draw the whole fucking process and pain out way longer than necessary.

Exactly this. The idiot humans don't need a say. We'll just fuck it up.

Cool. Now go back in time a couple years and that might actually mean something. Good that someone is even aware of what's up though.

This is the real question. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Any investment that isn't going into AI and Robotics is a waste. We should be in full on 1955 space race mode but it's not even on the radar. Absolute insanity.

OpenAI was solving Rubik's Cubes one handed 3 years ago. I think state of the art with the massive investments going into the field will surprise everyone.

https://youtu.be/jm-ihc7CASY

"When everyone is super, no one will be."

Great measured response. Acknowledge the valid issues while ignoring the clearly ridiculous suggestion of pausing development.

We'll see. I hope you're wrong. Once you get to "do this task" it won't care if that's "move a box" or "solder a refrigerant line".

RemindMe! 1 Year "Check android progress."

Yeah the Optimus bots are moving around doing stuff. This was surely scripted but here it is...

https://youtu.be/2dS0aDMQoD4

Absolutely fantastic. To the top of the sub you go. Generalist android labor is coming hard and fast. The world is about to become a VERY different place. One of my fears was that robot labor would significantly lag behind the displacement of white collar work. As long as they both emerge more or less together that presents a much faster transition away from capitalism.

EVE is old news. NEO is set to be unveiled in the summer and coupled with OpenAI access and investment I expect to see it demonstrated performing generalized tasks without extensive pre-training before the end of the year. Everyone who thinks blue collar jobs are safe for the next decade are dreaming.

None. The SOTA systems right now deployed at scale would create massive disruption. Maybe you can't automate 100% of your production pipeline but that's irrelevant. If you can automate most of it with one person just left to check the work you're looking at a huge disruption to white collar work.

I don't want to stay that's trivial but it is easily solved. However that's more or less irrelevant. GUIs are for humans. GPT accesses things directly through a CLI API. This paper more or less confirms what everyone else has been saying and experimenting with. GPT-4 might not be AGI, but enhanced with memory, chain of thought, task generation and prioritization, self-checking and correction, etc. it probably is. Now give it access to tools, things like TaskMatrix coming soon and frankly it becomes an extremely powerful autonomous agent. You tell it what you need and it just...does it. This is all going to come together very quickly. Then drop an immensely more powerful core into the system, i.e. GPT-5 and things start getting stupid.

For sure. It's extremely disappointing that Time would give public credence to a literal cult leader. His theories are based on completely outdated ideas about how we would develop AI and LLMs are nothing like he is describing.

Their claims are junk. This is just desperate nonsense.

Okay. How about first hand account? My sister works developing online educational curriculum. They've let go of their entire content team. GPT and Midjourney do the bulk of the work with the directors simply acting as editors at this point.

That's a fair point. I'm just glad I used to do HVAC because my FPGA job ain't going to last all that much longer I don't think.

Right now there's a shortage of manual labor. In the short term you'll see a massive amount of underemployment before things fall off a cliff. We need general purpose androids as soon as possible to get us through to the other side of this.

You're assuming there'll be many more children to teach. With immortality in our crosshairs the birth rate will absolutely plummet.

https://www.resumebuilder.com/1-in-4-companies-have-already-replaced-workers-with-chatgpt/