SkyeandJett t1_jeh3k1n wrote

You should watch the Ilya interview. He's confident there's still plenty of room for growth with just text but the real advancements will be multi-modal training data. I'd also take a look at Cerebras hardware. There's plenty of room for advancement with training hardware as well. We've got a LOT of runway ahead before hitting any real blocks and by then I'm 100% sure we'll have already hit self-improving AGI.


SkyeandJett t1_jegd2en wrote

You hit the nail on the head. Individual users and groups are cobbling together what could in fact be considered AGI as we speak. Anyone whose AGI prediction is later than 2024 might want to adjust it. Any sort of delay is ill advised. Most of these models still use GPT-4 at their core but I suspect once they're refined you could get away with something like Dolly for all but the most demanding problems and that's assuming someone doesn't bootstrap a self-improvement loop together that actually takes off.

As an example:


SkyeandJett t1_jeg2kr6 wrote

While this is true at a surface level it's another exponential process (within reason and limited by logistics). You build your initial factory and every robot produced does nothing else but bolster the infrastructure necessary to build more robots until you hit some critical mass of production and then send them out to do everything else (all calculated and coordinated by the AGI). That's the smartest thing to do but it relies on the government pulling their heads out of their ass. Instead we'll probably continue to rely on capitalism and draw the whole fucking process and pain out way longer than necessary.


SkyeandJett t1_jeetppa wrote

Absolutely fantastic. To the top of the sub you go. Generalist android labor is coming hard and fast. The world is about to become a VERY different place. One of my fears was that robot labor would significantly lag behind the displacement of white collar work. As long as they both emerge more or less together that presents a much faster transition away from capitalism.


SkyeandJett t1_jeeknn8 wrote

EVE is old news. NEO is set to be unveiled in the summer and coupled with OpenAI access and investment I expect to see it demonstrated performing generalized tasks without extensive pre-training before the end of the year. Everyone who thinks blue collar jobs are safe for the next decade are dreaming.


SkyeandJett t1_jee2yc5 wrote

I don't want to stay that's trivial but it is easily solved. However that's more or less irrelevant. GUIs are for humans. GPT accesses things directly through a CLI API. This paper more or less confirms what everyone else has been saying and experimenting with. GPT-4 might not be AGI, but enhanced with memory, chain of thought, task generation and prioritization, self-checking and correction, etc. it probably is. Now give it access to tools, things like TaskMatrix coming soon and frankly it becomes an extremely powerful autonomous agent. You tell it what you need and it just...does it. This is all going to come together very quickly. Then drop an immensely more powerful core into the system, i.e. GPT-5 and things start getting stupid.