SnipahShot
SnipahShot t1_ja3d6b5 wrote
Reply to comment by mehmeh42 in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
>They are trading this cheap because they offer so many shares to staff, the market dilution is killer on this one unfortunately.
That is actually wrong.
A big portion of their SBC expense has nothing to do with dilution. A big portion of their SBC expense is related to PSUs they awarded during the IPOE process, PSUs that are related to the stock price.
A dilution will happen if the stock price hits $25 on a volume weighted average over 90 days within 5 years of IPOE. Same for $35 and $45. All 3 of which seem unlikely right now, and if they do happen will someone complain about dilution when they x4 their investment from now to the lowest price target within like 3 years from now?
Their dilution is about 5-6mil shares per quarter, on 930mil shares outstanding (less than 1% per quarter).
SnipahShot t1_ja3bkz9 wrote
Reply to comment by CBruceNL in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
I don't know where or how the stock will move, I only correct people's wrong fundamental understanding of SoFi.
Hopefully it still goes down because I'd love to buy more and I am bearish on the market and assume it would pull SoFi down.
SnipahShot t1_ja2y1mb wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
> SOFI is down over 72% from ATH
And...? I said there are people with heavier bags in VOO and QQQ than what I am down on SoFi since you were talking about me and not someone else.
>None of this is relevant. I took can make up fake scenarios that mean nothing.
Hmm? What? I literally gave you numbers from the earnings report. Didn't add a single "scenario".
>SOFI is down. Hard.
They moved up over 90% within 35 trading days.
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> You are the one who looks like an ass because they lack reading comprehension skills and critical thought.
The reason I am invested in SoFi is because I couldn't care less what people say and look at earnings reports myself.
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>Yes, but you avoided typing your cost basis so I went with your comment about 2 weeks ago. All you said was you were up 10% 2 weeks ago. That means nothing to anyone.
I know math is hard for people on this sub but considering SoFi topped out at 8.24 and I was up 10% at around there, fairly easy to estimate my cost basis. It wouldn't be accurate but it would be few cents off. Just for the sake of amusement, my cost basis is 7.42.
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And nothing amuses me more than people talking about bags. I replied to someone about META a while back and they talked about my bags, not even knowing I bought into META a day before and was up (sold for profit already). This retort never ceases to amaze me from people who can't accept a different opinion by someone who perhaps looked into a company more than they did.
SnipahShot t1_ja2vmvq wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
Your retorts are so idiotic.
Cope harder
VOO is down 18% from ATH.
VOO will go up but a company with improving fundamentals, $4B of money and a decreasing GAAP net loss of $40mil in the last quarter will never recover (net loss that is based on non cash expenses).
That is a thing, when you actually look at fundamentals and at the actual report you don't make a clown of yourself on Reddit or anywhere else talking out of your ass.
Also -
>If you bought in 2 weeks ago you are currently down.
Literally almost every single company in the stock market. And yes, AMEN that they go down lower.
SnipahShot t1_ja2uifu wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
Heavy bags lol.
I was in 10% profit 2 weeks ago and I hope the stock goes back down because I didn't finish "loading the bags". There are people with heavier bags in VOO and QQQ than mine in SoFi.
SnipahShot t1_ja2n36f wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
RemindMe! 1.5 years
SnipahShot t1_ja2mphb wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
Okay, and your point is what?
Their deposits grew from $1B in Q1 to $7.34B in Q4 with 80% being from members with direct deposit . Oh, I am sure they cry every day for your $25 while they make 1.9% more money from interest on their loans compared to their warehouse facility loans.
SnipahShot t1_ja2m1jw wrote
Reply to comment by Humble_Increase7503 in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
>while stock based comp is to be expected, it remains an irritation. ~$70m in SBC last quarter alone is crazy.
Not really an irritation, it is insignificant. For one, it is a non cash expense.
And for two, a large portion of that expense is related to PSUs that were awarded after the IPOE process, PSUs with price targets of 25, 35 and 45 (volume weighted average for over 90 days) within 5 years of IPOE. Whether these vest eventually (one or all) doesn't matter one bit, will anyone complain if the stock price is at $45 within the next 2-3 years? Or at $25? If they don't vest then no dilution happens making it pointless.
SnipahShot t1_ja2li5q wrote
Reply to comment by DYTTIGAF in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
Have you even looked at their fundamentals? Bankruptcy? How do you invest in a company that you don't understand their fundamentals or financial status.
Let's look at how much money SoFi has, shall we?
As of Q3 2022 (10K is not out yet) SoFi had 10,662,995K unpaid principal on their loans. (page 27 of the 10Q)
Out of all of that, 2,314,950K are from warehouse facilities (page 51 of the 10Q).
Out of the remaining, SoFi also had 5,031,630K deposits (page 4 of the 10Q).
After accounting for both, SoFi had $3.3B of their own money in loans (seeing as there are only 3 sources of money to fund loans).
Now, this is just their own money that is in loans.
This is assuming all deposits are used for loans (which they quite possibly are not), this is also ignoring their cash and cash equivalents of $935mil in Q3 which would include their revolving facility money of $486mil.
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Now, for them to actually actually head to bankruptcy they have to spend more than they make. But it doesn't really work that way with GAAP accounting because GAAP accounting counts non cash expenses as well, for example SBC expenses.
From their cash flows and my own spreadsheets, Q3 marked SoFi's first quarter where SBC expense is higher than their actual net loss, meaning they are actually increasing their own cash situation. In Q3 the difference between SBC expense and the net loss was about $3mil, in Q4 that difference increased to $30.9mil (while SBC expense was decreasing from Q2 to Q3 and then to Q4).
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In a later reply I saw you said SoFi has issues selling securitizations, that is plainly wrong.
SoFi literally sold 2 securitizations in the last 4 months (440mil and 340mil) within a day, both receiving AAA ratings from 3 different rating companies. Finsight
The buyers of these securitizations? Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, Goldman Sachs, JPM, US Bancorp, Mizuho, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank. This is on top of them doing whole loan sales because securitizations are less profitable to do. In Q3 they sold $1.08B of loans (value of unpaid principal on them) for which they received $1.1B for (page 35 of the 10Q).
SnipahShot t1_ja2ipzl wrote
Reply to comment by DYTTIGAF in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
>Can't do everything (and be good at anything). The market is pricing this stock to reflect its poor management (and vision execution).
Lol, what? They are literally beating estimates and guidance in every report. They grew 52% in 2022. They are literally guiding for GAAP profitability in Q4, moved from Q1 2024.
SnipahShot t1_ja3qeya wrote
Reply to comment by [deleted] in Why SoFi is Poised to Take Over the Fintech Industry: An In-Depth Analysis by [deleted]
>You said VOO was down 18% from ATH. I stated how far SOFI was down from ATH.
You are trying to cherry pick start and end dates to suit your argument. I'm picking consistent time frames and metrics. You are mental gymnastics to make your shit argument work in your tiny pea sized brain, but everyone sees through your dumbassery.
I said there are people "holding bags" on VOO and QQQ more than what I am down Why do you insist on trying to twist out of this moronic "bag hold" bs?
So much stupidity in your inability to comprehend and trying to twist things to fit your lame attempt at what ever insult you were trying to make.
Are there
Or are there not
People holding VOO
At above my cost basis?
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It is a simple yes or no question and I am sure even your slow brain can work out an 1 word answer.
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>It's irrelevant because it's meaningless.
Company financial data is meaningless? Go eat crayons.
I won't even continue reading your pointlessly idiotic replies anymore and won't continue reading the rest of that comment either.