I'd suggest a Honda or Toyota, but as far as 3 year leases go, you're safe with most choices that aren't luxury brands. I used to check out common issues on carcomplaints if you want to dig deeper.

Would selling it at that point still be better? That's the speculative part of your calculation.

Seems to me that a reliable car like a Corolla would be great to hold onto after 3 years. I'd buy it versus leasing it, and drive it for the next 5+ years.