Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je7hdq8 wrote

Well, the alternative plan he talked about where Ukraine walks across the swamp, the Syvash, is probably the best plan. I have not yet seen any detailed operational plans discussed anywhere else so I will not say it here. I suggest you look at the Siege of Perekop, where the Soviets walked across the swamp, the Syvash, to flank enemy positions and take them by surprise. I think it might be workable for light infantry. Nevertheless, the Soviets took heavy casualties in taking Crimea.


Successful_Ad_6248 t1_je78nek wrote

I do not even think it will get to a stage where he will get a full blown civil war. I mean, look at the protests at the start of the war, those were pretty huge and it died down. Of course, the protests will be even larger if he loses Crimea but I do not really see a pathway to outright rebellion. I mean, his army is puttin down refuseniks very effectively now. Unless the officers rebel too of course, but I cannot foresee that happening, at least not yet. Maybe once the officers realise they have a high chance of dying when US enters the fray, only then they will rebel.

Again, US should tilt Putin calculations such that losing Crimea is an acceptable risk.