I'd expect a drop.

Pandemic drove a major pop. In most areas demand will regress but supply in all those areas has increased a lot.

In this environment, high PE ratio with no major growth prospect is bad news.

I think too much is priced in.

I had a long term lease contract for one property at 40% less for a renewal than last year. I think it's low and I don't like the operator, but everyone is forecasting a drop. It's been hot as hell and cooling off fast last few months.

Q3 rev will probably look good though

So I'm bearish on Airbnb, only because of their current valuation, not business model.

And the idea that they will do much better when people fly more - well the counter is, those trips are more expensive, so more share of wallet goes to airfare, rental cars/etc. And flight destinations have more competition from hotels and resorts.

Airbnb did extremely well as people drove to getaways within about 3 hours from where they live. Nightly rates went up.

The workcation thing I think is here to stay.

So your "travel stocks doing well" counter point doesn't apply to Airbnb to me. And that's also reflected in Marriot doing well from Jan 21 on and Abnb dropping from there.

Abnbs however, are great options during recessions. People still take vacations, they just drive. Airbnb has a distributed hotel but without the expenses of one, so they have inventory wherever the consumer travels.

I don't like their valuation though.

Cleaning fees are owner related. They have nothing to do with the price of a night, but more so with the labor cost and the size/scope of the house which happens to hover around 50% of the cost of a night in many areas.

Labor costs are quite high to clean a home. I know it might not seem like it, but to turnover a house right costs a lot of money.

Usually costs me $300-350 (big house). I don't mark it up. Pay cleaners a living wage. Laundry, mopping, vacuuming takes a long time. If you aren't paying a good chunk for cleaning, I'd be concerned.

Not everyone does the duvets as an example. That's nasty.

And many don't pay their cleaners a fair wage.

So it sucks, but renters can't be trusted to clean the house. Nor completely launder everything.