Xezshibole

Xezshibole t1_iudyq06 wrote

Probably not full EU membership within the decade, and certainly not with all (or any) of the old exceptions the UK had as an old member.

But there is a decent chance that Single Market (SM) and Customs Union (CU) membership may be fast tracked, as in a couple of years, if that.

The SM and CU are the economic engines of the EU, which is what most suffering Brexit are moaning about.

To get in (it's prerequisite to full EU membership anyways:)

  1. UK by extension Parliament must be restricted to at minimum have legislation that complies with all present and future Single Market rules. Must be aligned with SM to be an SM member after all. Not that big a deal as Tories haven't yet diverged too heavily from regs......although that "bonfire" is currently being debated in Westminster.

  2. To join the CU, UK must forfeit all independent trade policy. CU works by aligning so all members provide a unified set of tariffs to nonmembers, allowing custom free trade between members. Not really a problem to forfeit either given UK's anemic if not outright damaging (to UK, awesome for say, Australia) post Brexit trade deals.

  3. Resubmit to the European Court of Justice, which oversees disputes within the Single Market.

  4. Bear in mind SM and CU is not full EU membership, which is where EU Council and Parliament are in. Meaning UK will not have any votes or formal decisionmaking on what SM or CU policy is.

After all these conditions are met, I would imagine EU accepts quite quickly as

  1. They get a reopening of a large market compliant with its rules

  2. No meddling UK politicians in EU legislative process, particularly important with the likes of Farage or other Brexiteers getting voted in again.

  3. Resolves the Northern Ireland Protocol, as now both sides have formally aligned, meaning no need for checks again, and therefore no need for border infrastructure to conduct said checks at either Ireland (imperils GFA) or the Protocol's Irish Sea (gets DUP Unionists all ornery.)

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Xezshibole t1_iudu7t3 wrote

At minimum (so could be higher,) with any disputes capable of being enforced from any member country. If someone wants to sue you from Hungary, they can do so and can expect an equivalent result as if they sued you in UK, Portugal, or any other Single Market (SM) member country. Though the rules are set by an "external" power, at least the UK had a vote and some representation on what the rules and trading policy is.

Now? Market size of the EU means that it's impossible to ignore the rules of your largest and most importantly nearest trade partner. So practically speaking UK businesses are effectively tied to these rules anyways, now without any votes or representation.

That's just how it is when trading. End of the day: You must be compliant with the importer's standards. Inside the Single Market this would be baked into your rules, so there's little need to have documents checked at the border between members. With EU membership you'd even have a vote on what those rules are. Outside of it like any other 3rd country (US, China, Australia, aka non SM member) you must prove it via documentation and provide it at the border into the SM, no matter how closely your country's laws align with said rules.

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