AI replacing jobs comes down to economics. Is it cheaper to develop an AI/Robot to do a certain task than it is to just have humans continue to do it? Then it's ripe for automation. The jobs to target first are ones that are expensive, tedious/repetitive, easier to be done by a machine. We've already started automating jobs that machines are good at (think bank tellers, manufacturing, etc.).

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My own personal opinion is that the physical robotics will prove to be harder to do well than computer AI, and that automating jobs that use a combination of both AI and physical robotics will be the hardest.

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Also, you don't need human level AI to replace most artists. Have you seen some of the image generator AIs right now?

It would cost more for the plumber to set up/put a robot in the pipe than to just do the work

I think you're underestimating the amount of different existing conditions that a trade person would come across, especially for rehab work in an existing building. You're interfacing with things that could have been installed over 100 years ago, of all kinds of materials, and if you do it wrong there is a huge risk to safety and property.

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While I do think AI will replace ALL jobs, I think these types of jobs will be some of the last to go. I also think that AI will replace the new construction trade jobs first since it will be easier to do the job in a more controlled environment.

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I'm an engineer, not a trade person, and I think my job will be automated well before the trades do.

Trade jobs don't happen in a vacuum, which is the hard part of automating them. To get a robot plumber to join two pieces of pipe in a lab is EASY. To get that same robot to go into your house, find the main water valve and shut off the water, cut out sheet rock, drill holes in the appropriate places through existing framing without compromising the structure, slope the pipe correctly, etc. AND do it all to building code is HARD.

The reason they'll probably be some of the last jobs to be automated is that the job includes a lot of variety in the individual tasks, most tasks require both highly functioning robotics and high intelligence AI, and current labor isn't paid that highly.