Zukiff t1_ixl68sw wrote

Do you even know how far Australia is from Taiwan? Australia also doesn't have power projection last I check they don't have any aircraft carrier and their ships will need to be resupplied somewhere. Southeast Asia have been pretty clear about not taking sides, they won't be able to resupply from there. And finally the current australian govt is trying to mend ties with China. Give it 2-3 months and you will see them making very different stance on the issue

China is Germany's biggest trading partner, their chancellor is the first European leader to visit China to improve ties immediately after Xi confirm his 3rd term. Even if they disagree, they aren't going to disagree hard. Besides, Germany has no power projection. To take part in a recent military exercise in Australia their fighters needed to refuel 5 times just to fly here. You really think they will fight China?

As for the UK, since they are nothing but US lackey I expect them to follow whatever US is doing. Which is nothing. The US dare not fight Russia what makes you think they will fight China which by their own assessment, they will lose. Furthermore to reinforce this point, the US have already moved most of their more advanced hardware like F35 out of the 1st island chain to the 2nd island chain defence to avoid Chinese missile system. They have no capacity to defend Taiwan in asia.

While I'm sure they will try to do something. Like I stated in my last post what are they able to do? Economic sanctions doesn't work and no one even their European Allies are going to support this, direct military means likelihood of losing and providing military support is next to impossible because of Chinese missile system and Taiwan being an island.


Zukiff t1_ixk2452 wrote

Yes I know but you're the one telling me western Allies will come halfway around the world to fight China. I'm asking which one? Like I said, NATO don't even dare fight Russia which by all measure is a weaker nation than China, in Ukraine, which is literally right next to NATO nations. What makes you think members from that same group will sail halfway around the world to confront an even more powerful nation? I really want to understand the logic behind that


Zukiff t1_ixjsjlg wrote

40% of the Chinese fleet are literally built over the last 4 years


Meanwhile has a lot of ships that are more than 30 years old like the ticonderoga class cruisersfacing decommissioning but doesn't have the building capacity to replace them


I'm not the one living in an alternative reality, our reality have moved on from the time where US is far more power than everyone else combined. Sure the Chinese are still not as powerful as the US Navy overall. But they are more powerful than the Americans when they are fighting in their own backyard while the US needs to travel thousands of miles to fight them


Zukiff t1_ixh9st3 wrote

Which ally? I'm from Singapore, my govt already told you to go F off we're not taking sides. As far as we're concern this is a civil war and you clowns should stop causing trouble in the region. And we are one of you biggest "ally" in the region. All of Southeast Asia is pretty much doing the same. Most of them are actually more pro China than American.

That leaves Korea and Japan. Korea isn't going to fight its biggest trading partner especially when North Korea is waiting. The Japanese aren't keen on helping either. 74% of Japanese are against their govt taking actions over Taiwan and Japanese constitution does not allow them to do so. So they would actually need to literally change their constitution first.

Who else Mongolia? They are not American ally and they don't even have a navy. Australia? They are too far away and have no means to project power all the way to Taiwan. There's no one else in the region that will help you fight China.


Zukiff t1_ixh3k2s wrote

Those numbers from the US are totally out of context. Yes the Chinese have far fewer missiles compared to the US overall but they have far more in Asia. If the US can summon the full might of their entire forces to fight China in Asia, yes they will probably win. In reality they can't, in the real world the US have global obligations and can only send a portion to a single theatre at any one time and that's not accounting for ships that are under maintenence which at any one time almost half their carriers are under servicing. That's why the US war games keep coming up with a result of US losing

Finally on the defence Treaty its no longer in effect because the Americans no longer recognize Taiwan as a country and the most ironic part, its a Treaty with China not Taiwan, might want to remember that, the country of Taiwan doesn't exist. The Republic of China does and its constitution states that mainland China is part of its territory


Zukiff t1_ixgjwgl wrote

The difference here is not just fancy toys. Numbers alone are overwhelming. The Chinese Navy is already bigger in terms of number of ships vs the US navy. Since the Americans cannot bring their entire navy to Asia just to defend Taiwan due to global obligation on top of that most of the Chinese ships are modern ones while the Americans are close to obsolete having to replace most of their fleet in the next few years and the Chinese have an extremely large advantage in the region. The worst part is the Chinese are outbuilding the Americans by more than 4:1 ships. Almost Half their navy was built from 2018. The Chinese realize the Americans wants to seek conflict with them when Trump started his trade war and started crazy increase in naval built up. Now they are doing the same with the airforce. Even if they somehow loss round 1 to the Americans, they will win the next one

The Chinese missile system which is generally considered more advanced than what the american currently have basically means the aircraft carriers are pretty much useless making it even harder for them to fight the Chinese.

There is general consensus now that the Americans won't be joining any sort of conflict in the Taiwan straits especially after seeing how they abandoned Ukraine. Anyone who still thinks the Americans will defend Taiwan is probably living in a different reality. Its even more apparently when they are switching to telling Taiwan to buy weapons for urban warfare and stopped selling/transferring weapons that would prevent Chinese from landing a force in Taiwan.


Zukiff t1_ixgf06r wrote

Not sure what universe you live in. Back in the 90s, the Americans can scare off the Chinese with 2 aircraft carriers. Today, the Americans have already assess they are unable to defeat the Chinese in the Taiwan straits.

>In 2018 and 2020, two other war games showed the same results with China targeting Guam. The 2018 war game revealed that the US military will lose fast if it doesn’t change course considering the Chinese advancement in military technology and missiles.

>“After the 2018 war game, I distinctly remember one of our gurus of war gaming standing in front of the Air Force secretary and chief of staff and telling them that we should never play this war game scenario [of a Chinese attack on Taiwan] again because we know what is going to happen,” Lieutenant General S Clinton Hinote, deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, United States Air Force (USAF), told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview in March 2021.


In some cases the Chinese military are far more affable than the Americans. If that's not swiftly catching up I don't know what is.

>The head of defence contractor Raytheon has said the US is years behind China in its pursuit of hypersonic weapons which can bob and weave through the atmosphere at more than five times the speed of sound.


There's a reason why they are pulling most of their more advanced unit back to Guam


Zukiff t1_ixg8kws wrote

There is a group of political elites within the US who feels since the confrontation with China is inevitable, its better to do it sooner when they still have the advantage than drag this out since China is swiftly catching up. The Russian failure in Ukraine only embolden those with this view.

Recent moves by the US to force TSMC to move to America even when the founder of Tsmc have said publicly many times that its not profitable for them to produce chips in the US, planning to destroy TSMC facilities in Taiwan and drawing up plans to evacuate up to 1000 tech experts from Taiwan are just examples of how the US is getting ready should the conflict happen(I followed all of those on Taiwanese political shows but you can Google for articles on what I just mentioned although some maybe in Chinese)