abrandis t1_j8oyyrb wrote

But we won't , it's too expensive and frankly mental health is considered a side issue since it's out of sight out of mind for most folks . I suspect that probably half of the homeless with me tal issue probably could live a normal life if they received regular treatment and had a support system and weren't thrown to the whims of capitalism.


abrandis t1_j7byfow wrote

Software was INHERENTLY simpler 35 years ago, modern tech and tools just means software features & complexity fills the void and does more , and I would argue software today is less reliable and less durable than it was back then...

I agree AI is a productivity tool for most developers, but software is being commoditized with SaaS so in the future AI will just be used to stitch together SaaS and a lot fewer developers will be needed to craft novel system s


abrandis t1_j6fhpll wrote

No the OP is NOT wrong, Software development like any other industry is becoming more and more commoditized.

When I started my work in the 90s almost any organization beyond mom and pop size had a development staff in house, over time it was either outsourced and now a days it's all cloud and SaaS , most large corporations for their common functions (HR,accounting, logistics) subscribe off the shelf/cloud products and maybe pay a few developers for some customizations, a lot less than hiring an in house team to build and maintain such a system. This will happen more and more into the future. Eventually AI will become good enough that a proper description of a customized app can be created ..

.for example I can envision a AI prompt like, "create me a complete accounting application for a mid-sized construction company that is government compliant " , and AI would stitch together all the relevant SaaS services into a working portal and/or mobile app. No programming knowledge needed.

Software development is like any other mature industry , abstraction + time means there's less need to focus on the minutia of bits and bytes and more on the desired outcomes.


abrandis t1_j4vug7l wrote

AI will simply allow companies to do the same or more work with less workers.

Think about it , if a company now has 5 copywriters or artists they may be able to make do with 2 or 1 because all that person does is vet or edit the AI generated work, the heavy lifting part the content generation is done by the machine . In other fields like medical imaging, fewer doctors (radiologists) will be needed to "sign-off" on the AI generated diagnosis...and so on in other fields.


abrandis t1_j4qgprr wrote

Exactly this, they rely too much on those ads to satisfy Wall st. That's why they're treading cautiously because if you give users a system that provides near perfect answers and they don't go around clicking a bunch of links it kinda breaks you're business model.

I see this as a Kodak Digital vs. Kodak film crossroads, do you create a better search at the expense of ad revenue, because someone will.


abrandis t1_j4i77e5 wrote

I doubt it, here's why.. Automation especially the mechanical variety (like industrial robots) are very very expensive and only make sense in industries where economy of scale benefits outweigh the costs (auto, airplanes etc.)...

Take fast food for example, assembling a burger is a heck of a lot easier than assembling a car, why haven't we seen automated kitchens? Because you're selling a burger for a few $$ and the cost of human labor is still cheap enough than to retrofit a fast food restaurant with expensive robots where the ROI could take years, and you still need people at the location because automation is very narrow focused (it may take an order, but won't mop the floor, clean the bathrooms, or answer customer questions / complaints ), the economics for most of these kind of low skill low pay jobs don't favor automation today.

Now the more high skilled white collar type of jobs, those are more at risk, but only certain categories, because lots of professional level jobs (doctors, lawyers, engineers) still have to work inside a regulatory framework that legally holds the person (human) liable for said work (that's why engineers sign off on blueprints and work authorizations), you can't just stick automation in place of the person the law hasn't adapted to that. So for certain classes of professional work, it's still pretty safe.

The most at risk are your entry level office workers, call center reps, entry level salespeople, entry or mid level finance, if your job involves looking at a spreadsheet or some website and making decisions about the data and then just updating it, yeah those jobs are going away.

But it all takes time and thats the main determinant of how much chaos AI will have in the job market , how quickly jobs get replaced... If tomorrow there's a cheap enough self drivig. Truck that puts all the trucking jobs at risk, yeah big problem, but if that takes a generation, not so big....


abrandis t1_j3swxvn wrote

There isn't , there are some animals that can coil themselves (centipedes, caterpillars) into a shape of a wheel/circle and roll or have the wind push them, but no none in the animal kingdom. I suspect because a free rotating wheel would be disconnected from the body that grew it...


abrandis t1_j1x4ln2 wrote

Trades do offer good money, but as others have said, the physical toll is pretty high, unless you only plan to work in a trade for 5-10 years.

I have uncles in trades they're in there mid -forties and look 60 , all complain about knee/back pain, many are out of shape (their jobs exhausts them daily they don't have any energy to come home and work out, not to mention a shit diet, again out in the field, they don't have the luxury of finding healthy food.). One does have a nice boat and they all have decent homes and their kids are well supported, but its a touch life..


abrandis t1_j0yva7p wrote


abrandis t1_j0v90an wrote

Not likely based on what you describe, as evolution happens over hundreds of thousands of years.

I think a more problematic situation is that modern civilization relies on a big network of interconnected resources to function, when those things fail, supply chain disruption, weather events etc.. modern civilization begins to teeter.


abrandis t1_ixoujne wrote

This is the issue with all these data-driven metrics companies, they take the humanity out of work , and expect people to perform like machines and try to measure them such.... I get everyone wants to get it yesterday, but they Amazon supply chain is pretty efficient , I can wait a week or two for delivery...