bernard_cernea

bernard_cernea t1_j30sckp wrote

The highest voted comment on that blog by jbash for your convenience:

I really don't care about IQ tests; ChatGPT does not perform at a human level. I've spent hours with it. Sometimes it does come off like a human with an IQ of about 83, all concentrated in verbal skills. Sometimes it sounds like a human with a much higher IQ than that (and a bunch of naive prejudices). But if you take it out of its comfort zone and try to get it to think, it sounds more like a human with profound brain damage. You can take it step by step through a chain of simple inferences, and still have it give an obviously wrong, pattern-matched answer at the end. I wish I'd saved what it told me about cooking and neutrons. Let's just say it became clear that it did was not using an actual model of the physical world to generate its answers.

Other examples are cherry picked. Having prompted DALL-E and Stable Diffusion quite a bit, I'm pretty convinced those drawings are heavily cherry picked; normally you get a few that match your prompt, plus a bunch of stuff that doesn't really meet the specs, not to mention a bit of eldritch horror. That doesn't happen if you ask a human to draw something, not even if it's a small child. And you don't have to iterate on the prompt so much with a human, either.

Competitive coding is a cherry-picked problem, as easy as a coding challenge gets... the tasks are tightly bounded, described in terms that almost amount to code themselves, and come with comprehensive test cases. On the other hand, "coding assistants" are out there annoying people by throwing really dumb bugs into their output (which is just close enough to right that you might miss those bugs on a quick glance and really get yourself into trouble).

Self-driving cars bog down under any really unusual driving conditions in ways that humans do not... which is why they're being run in ultra-heavily-mapped urban cores with human help nearby, and even then mostly for publicity.

The protein thing is getting along toward generating enzymes, but I don't think it's really there yet. The Diplomacy bot is indeed scary, but it still operates in a very limited domain.

... and none of them have the agency to decide why they should generate this or that, or to systematically generate things in pursuit of any actual goal in a novel or nearly unrestricted domain, or to adapt flexibly to the unexpected. That's what intelligence is really about.

I'm not saying when somebody will patch together an AI with a human-like level of "general" performance. Maybe it will be soon. Again, the game-playing stuff is especially concerning. And there's a disturbingly large amount of hardware available. Maybe we'll see true AGI even in 2023 (although I still doubt it a lot).

But it did not happen in 2022, not even approximately, not even "in a sense". Those things don't have human-like performance in domains even as wide as "drawing" or "computer programming" or "driving". They have flashes of human-level, or superhuman, performance, in parts of those domains... along with frequent abject failures.

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bernard_cernea t1_iwknrgw wrote

I have several arguments against them including:

  1. Noise pollution and wind currents at landing and take off;
  2. Safety. Congested airways would produce many more accidents in 3D than 2D highways among vehicles. Also intoxicated drivers becoming suicide bombers crashing in tall buildings. Also it would be harder to institute traffic rules that establish priority because there are no fixed routes.
  3. It would ruin the city landscape making it cluttered and chaotic for pedestrians.
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