You are correct that LNG isn't just Freeport, but when you are trading HH or NG or any US based product, global lng prices only really matter if we have to price for turnback. Which we won't this year. Next year there is already about 11 days of turnback probability priced in. Please take a shot on if that is over or under lol.

If you want to bet on global lng markets, trade TTF or something

Play is probably to find a different product to trade. Storage balances are robust and production is growing. The next time to buy is probably in 2024 when LNG capacity starts to grow and rig counts stagnate and potential drop off because of lack of investment due to credit issues or ESG.

If you really want to try to get an edge trading gas, look at storage balance forecasts, mid term weather, production forecasts, capital investment projections, pipe capacity/lng capacity build out news,...

Not some idiot talking about Elliot wave, and historically low prices.

Major drillers just said in their earnings calls they are profitable down to like 1.60. They aren't going to stop. Gas to coal switching is less of a lever and large capital investments in industrials are long term risky, unappetizing endeavors. Vol was absolutely wiped this winter but there are still pockets that are likely soft.

If you absolutely must trade NG because you are fixated on it, sell out of the money calls on J-V and you'll probably make money, but the market will sweat you for it.

Let me help you.

Idk what you mean by shorts being stomped out. You sound like an idiot.

The weather variability for March and April can be significant, but not when we have likely over 2tcf of EOS storage. Companies have to cycle their storage and there is more of a chance of having forced selling to cycle than people holding their storage.

Almost 100% of LNG export capacity from the USA is already contracted. EU and global storage positions doesn't matter right now because there is almost a 0% chance of LNG turnback for the rest of the year no matter how cold it gets. Cash prices have been <$2 for a lot of the month of Feb with more daily demand than a cold March day will need. Remember, you are ultimately trading physical henry hub. There needs to be export capacity to flex for global markets to matter in the near term in our current storage environment.

Freeport has been delayed for months. And while it could have mattered for EOS by opening in Dec. It now does not matter. You said it yourself, the market is forward looking. The market has expected it to come on anytime between Dec. and now depending on who you ask. Nonfactor

You aren't trading Dec 23 contracts with BOIL or whatever the fuck you are doing. You are trading prompt or a mix of prompt and prompt plus.

You are an idiot on this one.

Technicals are astrology for losers. Only validity in any technical signals in NG is maybe on the 15min or higher frequency charts intra day in the summer when actual traders have shit else to do than make up a story to use allocated margin so they can tell their PM they are doing things.

Tldr. You are highly regarded and whoever starts wading in NG waters better know WTF they are doing before trading this shit.

They almost certainly did not have spare capacity outside their firm transport agreements to ship anything themselves. If anything they are more at risk during extreme weather events. Good luck! You could make money, but you'll do it for the wrong reasons.

You are very regarded. Pipeline companies don't make the basis on phys deliveries, shippers do.