bombmk t1_j6kawrp wrote

Political pussyfooting.
There is SOME logic to stepping it up slowly to avoid giving Putin a single big issue to use as grounds for a truly horrible decision. Slow boiling the nuclear/biological weapons issue basically.

They have in my opinion just been WAY too careful. Which is politically safe as long as it is not their citizens dying.


bombmk t1_j6kaf1l wrote

> It makes no sense from a military perspective.

Given that the reason is political pussyfooting that can be very true while offering no explanatory power for the question at hand.

I could understand holding back while the things where still on a jittery scale at the start of the conflict (don't want your gear picked up by the other side the the day after it arrives).

But since the Ukrainians started pushing them back, I have very little respect or patience for the tempo of the material help they have been given.

They have been trying to boil the mythical nuclear frog without making it jump out of the pot. And as long is it is only Ukrainians dying, a slower boil is of course the safer choice...


bombmk t1_j6k4s0i wrote

Question of what makes something "THAT important" is a little complex though.

What from the outside can be seen as a completely Pyrrhic victory can still work on the inside for someone like Putin that will be under increasing pressure to show success. To just give one example.

It could also boost morale all over the front for Russians troops - the effectively makes the cost worthwhile. (I doubt that, but for the sake of example)

And the Russian army does not operate under the same societal sensitivity to losses that the US does. It is still nuts - but that does not mean it cannot work for an orchish horde.


bombmk t1_j6k1xhx wrote

1: Initiative is not "overwhelming"

2: Not known if remaining defensive is a conscious strategic choice while they are waiting for spring and the new hardware it brings. That is of course highly speculative.

But it does seem like positive movements map wise has been going the Russian way lately. No argument there. The less obvious part is whether that has come at a sustainable cost.


bombmk t1_j6k08qj wrote

The one thing that has me worried atm is that has been a while since we have had a significant Ukrainian positive movement on the fronts. As far as I can tell.
Now, that might VERY well be due to deliberate strategic decisions of just hanging on the ropes over winter and let the Russians punch themselves tired.
Still has me somewhat worried that the Russians with their more concentrated strategy of pushing flesh at the dam until it breaks might have found a way to prevent the Ukrainians from overloading the Ukrainian ability to cover the front AND maintain offensive capabilities.

At which point it becomes speculation about the sustainability of the Russian strategy.

But I sincerely hope that it is just me being overly worried. And that they new NATO hardware arrives sooner rather than later.


bombmk t1_iya48ee wrote

This is what it looks like when you are just out of the air and light pollution here from earth:

Get outside of the atmosphere and it will be even crazier.

And if you then add that what we can see with the naked eye is only a small fraction of the galaxy...