btmc

btmc t1_iub3m1e wrote

Her main weakness is simply that she has the most Republican district in the state. Very few voters know anything about the record of their member of Congress.

The GOP also somehow managed to not shoot themselves in the foot and nominated a superficially moderate Black man with a Latina mother. He is also carefully avoiding any mention of his political affiliation in his ads and campaign materials. I have to imagine the vast majority of other Republican candidates in the district would not do as well against her.

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btmc t1_itrqjtt wrote

Do not get complacent. A big lead can evaporate if everyone assumes it's a done deal, and a lot of other races in the state are much closer than this one.

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btmc t1_it4gttb wrote

Four years ago, Bob won by outspending his competitors in a crowded field of no-name candidates. The only candidate with a track record, Mark Boughton, was too moderate to win a GOP primary, and so Bob was able to squeak out a win.

This year, Bob is basically a sacrificial lamb since Lamont became quite popular thanks to perceptions of his handling of the pandemic. IIRC it was a much less crowded field, and Bob had the money and the name recognition.

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