carso150 t1_jcqyfo5 wrote

Taking into account it doesnt have an atmosphere and it's being constantly blasted 24/7 by the biggest nuclear reactor in the solar system i don't really see how a bunch of tiny reactors are going to do much of a diference


carso150 t1_ja0gz99 wrote

one way i like to describe it is that technology goes through cliffs and plateaus of development and adoption

when a new technology is introduced it quickly develops at insane speed until it reaches a point were the development slows down then after that plateau is hit it hits another cliff of adoption in which the technology goes from being barely available and expensive to propagate all over the world, rinse and repeat new developments take time to reach the market but once they do they do at warp speed and it a technology is in quick development and quick adoption like cellphones and computers for example you have constant changes and adoptions until the entire technological landscape looks completly diferent from just a couple of years ago

AI and space technology are two realms of technological development and adoption that i think will be the focus for the next 20 to 30 years if not more until we reach the limits of either one of them and the development slows down for a while, this usually happens but its not noticeable because when some technology reaches its peak we usually develop another one that quickly keeps the pace of development, usually a technology that utilizes all of that developed technolgy to progress even further (for example computing technology is already hitting its limit, we have nearly reached the end of moores law but 30 years of technological progression means that modern computers are powerful enough to now power this AI and reusable rocket revolution that we are living right now)


carso150 t1_j9lctwh wrote

the moon is actually not all that far away, its only a three days travel with near instantaneus comunication, right now the biggest limitation is that rockets take months of preparation to launch anything and you have a limited number of them but taking into account that spacex is right now able to launch with only a 2 week window and that starship will be much more capable than falcon 9 we could reach a point in the next 10 to 15 years were we are able to do daily missions to space or even multiple missions in the same day, it only took spacex 10 years to reach this current rate of launches after all

at that point responce times to any emergency happening on the moon would not really be any slower than the responce to emergencies on earth, a couple days at most which unless its a literal catastrophic emergency would be more than enough time for most stuff

this all sounds imposible right now, but so did reusable rockets launching once per week 10 years ago

mars will be far harder, i fully expect a mars landing in before 2050 but i do agree that full colonization will likely take longer

moon colonization i do see it much feasible, we already were able to put humans on the moon and keep them there safe for 12 days over 50 years ago, the moon is going to start colonization in the next couple of decades and that is just the first step


carso150 t1_j9l7w2b wrote

and i think some severly understimate just how long 30 years are, starship will more than certainly fly sometime this year and once it flies once you can expect that spacex will quickly develop and improve uppon the design, because even if it only scratches what is needed that slightly scratch is only step 1 and again, 30 years is a fucking long time a lot of stuff can and will change in 30 years far faster than many people expect


carso150 t1_j7mafx8 wrote

Reply to comment by LoasNo111 in 200k!!!!!! by Key_Asparagus_919

you tell me, i used to frequent futurology but now its just a subset of r/doomandgloom and its draining to go on that subreddit so now i just avoid it like the plague


carso150 t1_j454gjl wrote

i personally dont believe its soo much media manipulation but more like you dont learn of this things unless you are closely following the trends and people just dont understanding exponential curves and severly understimating technological growth and development, a lot of people seem to extrapolate current technological development and believe that we are still going to be living mostly the same in 2100 just maybe with some robots and better cellphones when the trend is that technology completly shifts and changes almost every decade at this point

also another huge issue is that for decades the growth of renewables have been glacially slow and since people like to extrapolate from their life experiences they expect that the growth will remain glacially slow, sum to that the fact that most news about the insane growth of renewables barely makes a dip (you will hear 100 news about how everything is going "faster than expected" before one about renewable energy growth because that has become the media favorite buzzwords to attract clicks) and because of that most people still believe that "nothing is being done", again i dont believe is outright media manipulation is just that bad news sell

also first time i hear EVs being refered as "plugins"