The market remaining tight isn't the same thing as it staying as hot as it was. More to the point, freight costs (in part pushed up by fuel costs) and commodity prices (oil/grain) are no longer being pushed up the way they were six months ago by Putin's invasion of Ukraine. There's no one factor that was pushing up inflation but the sum total of the factors that were pushing it up are not as intense as they were when Powell slammed the brakes on the stock market and pushed AAPL down to 130.

>Why do I feel like this is too good to be true,

Because reading Fed statements isn't like reading the newspaper

> is wording is vague like “well it’s possible…. Incoming data blah blah blah” then he says labor market and emphasizes on services inflation.

The Fed is run by economists, as economists do they make a point of qualifying any predictions that aren't entirely certain, which is basically everything that hasn't happened yet. A byproduct of this is that when they do say something with any material degree of certainty the world jumps, that's why arguably Powell is more powerful than Biden.

>Which an inflation report comes tomorrow and jobs data Friday… something smells weird here imo but idk honestly I’m beginning to think I don’t know shit about anything. Payrolls will probably be a non event Friday and pce idk.

You're right, you dont know. I don't either with any degree of certainty.

>But my question is will people be grabbing up jobs with what the outlook looks like. There’s really been no surprises in the jobs data recently. I’ve also noticed that the adp data is not very accurate (seen large swings both ways on that).

Given this dovishness I would anticipate that either jobs or inflation are going to print weaker numbers than they have lately.\

>I got shit on today and honestly can’t believe what I just saw, now keep in mind I thought the market would react the way it did on the last cpi release… but this pushed almost every metric into extreme greed (in itself doesn’t mean anything

What's your day job?

>). Idk if you will read this or have input but I don’t honestly know what to make of this. Seems like the market wants to go to ath rn and I do actually somewhat agree with the rally that occurred from the past bit.

It's definitely true no one wants to miss out on upside, the dovish language in today's statement presaged by weakening freight costs and more news of layoffs meant that fears of another 75 bp rate hike didn't bear out.

>The one thing that throws me off is the amount of massive and I mean MASSIVE upswings in the past 2 months which a actually isn’t indicative of bull markets not fueled by monetary stimulus.

The market is still down materially YTD as a whole.

"The main news is... Powell likes to drink coffee and read newspapers before work."

^makes me laugh

In the long run you're right, but you know what they say about the long run...

We aren't there yet.

Shipping rates and the hot labor market were driving inflation through the roof, both have eased, they should (as they are) ease off the brakes as that's happening. The Fed's mandate isn't to stop inflation by crushing the economy, it's to keep inflation under control.

Good thing Skynet isn't running the Fed yet IMO

Have done something similar by measuring the speed at which my motor pulled the thread and tracking it by time, not perfect but came in close enough for my use case