To add to the previous explanations - here's an animation how a 13-meter tall bridge in Prague was built in roughly 60 years (Charle's Bridge). It's an official reconstruction of the local historic society how it was built. Should answer some questions. IIRC it started 1348 and was opened 1407. (not sure about it and too lazy to check it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJgD6gyi0Wk

Edit> 1357 - 1402, meeting was less important so I actually checked it :D

You are mistaking this for the probability for a set of events. An event in this case is a roll on a dice - 1/6th chance to roll a number. The chance never changes. BUT the chance of rolling any other number decreases the more you add the events into the set. But that's the probability for the whole set.

Set of 1 roll is 5/6 (times 100 if you wanna see it in % ) which is roughly 83,33 %

But set of 10 rolls (any other than 6) is 5/6 ^ 10 which is roughly 16,15 %

Now from this it seems like the chance is getting bigger, but what's changing is the set you're tracking probability for. The rolls are still 1/6th for a number :)

edit> to give you maybe a better example considering my English and explanation skills :D

if you roll 9 times any other number than 6, then the next roll being any other number while considering the whole set is 16,15 % and the roll for the 6 thus increased to awesome 83,85 %! But that's ONLY because we make the probability based on the previous rolls. The chance the next roll will be any other number on its own is still 5/6 and the chance for the 6 is still 1/6.

Not the one you replied to, but hey, I can say what I worry about =)

We deliver modern tanks. Russia starts losing and Putin allows the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the Ukraine armed forces.

The US said they will retaliate over such usage. Let's say they will do what they promised and destroy the fleet in the area with conventional means only. This is an act of war of a NATO country (and major NATO player) against Russia.

ANd I fear that the retaliation of Russia will be the usage of strategic nuclear weapons against the European NATO countries as a response to the attack of the US.

well, the fear is that Russia will use their tactical nuclear weapons, which will resolve in a retaliation of the US (they officially said so) which will be an act of war. (please note,the US said they will use conventional retaliation)

And to be fair, Russian generals probably want to use these weapons, it would make the war much easier and with the latest promised delivery of modern tanks it may cross the line.

Mick looks like he hates all the world behind the window. I can relate to that.