dynosaur7 t1_j56jx5w wrote on January 20, 2023 at 7:19 PM

Reply to comment by Supercst in January inflation forecast according to prediction market Kalshi by 3xasperated

The same prediction market has a Fed forecast here: kalshi.com/forecasts/fed

dynosaur7 OP t1_j3y8hen wrote on January 11, 2023 at 9:56 PM

Reply to comment by pantaloonsofJUSTICE in [OC] I used prediction market data to chart inflation forecasts over the course of December by dynosaur7

That's right, it's month % increase. The current forecast for year-over-year is 6.4% headline

dynosaur7 OP t1_j3xzj79 wrote on January 11, 2023 at 9:01 PM

Reply to comment by Born_Room7048 in [OC] I used prediction market data to chart inflation forecasts over the course of December by dynosaur7

Headline is lower than Core right now because energy prices are dropping more than other categories. (Core doesn't include energy)

The data is from kalshi.com and you can view an interactive version at kalshi.com/forecasts/inflation

dynosaur7 OP t1_j3xxqhq wrote on January 11, 2023 at 8:50 PM

Reply to [OC] I used prediction market data to chart inflation forecasts over the course of December by dynosaur7

There’s a lot of speculation about what December’s inflation is going to be, leading up to the BLS’s announcement on Thursday. I used market data from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, to chart and annotate how the forecast has changed over time.
Data: kalshi.com/events/CPI-22DEC

Tools: React, VisX
Link to interactive content: kalshi.com/forecasts/inflation
Disclaimer: I am employed by Kalshi, but all the data I used to create this visualization is publicly accessible on the website.