Definitely not.

It will make translators as a profession useless. And it will make working with people who speak different languages easier. But I don't see how it wouldn't still be a valuable skill. There is a big difference between connecting with someone face to face vs through a translator. I'd argue that it's going to make language learning an even more accessible and rewarding hobby/skill than it already is.

Sure. That doesn't change my bet though. Because much more investment and human attention will be devoted to optimizing conventional architecture and software since those are what have the largest return on investment at the moment. So, the speed up goes to all sectors. Granted quantum computing scales differently than conventional computing but I still don't see a reality where it outperforms conventional computing at training model weights before we already hit AGI. Also granted, that there is probably more low hanging fruit in Quantum computing compared to the nearly century of maturity that conventional computing has. There are trillions of dollars in conventional AI research and GPU manufacturing that would have to be retooled to achieve AGI via quantum computing whereas I believe that conventional approaches will be done faster, cheaper, and more easily. If I'm wrong then I think the issue with my beliefs is the time horizon for AGI and not about the future of technological development.

There's lot of research into how quantum computers could be used to help train neural networks with lower compute requirements. But I put a very low probability of quantum computing scaling fast enough to be useful at the sizes of models were working at in the near future.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.04255

Isn't this just progress?

Umm wow! I recommend backing up this GitHub before it gets taken down for "safety"

I think that world is so unknowable it's pretty much impossible to say.

First, I let AGI plan my day because it will probably be way better at that than me.

I think the utopic future will be made up of time with friends and family, mental and physical stimulation, good food, good rest, novel experiences, novel destinations.

Good to hear. Thanks!

I heard 30B isn't very good. Anyone with experience disagree?

I had a working version of flappy bird using the JavaScript sandbox over a year ago. The learning algorithm is pretty cool tho. The sandbox took a few prompts to get it working too but it didn't have to code a single thing.

Isn't alphago trained against itself? So I would consider it adversarial training.

Nope that was five years ago and he is still uploading videos.

Let the idiots move the goal posts. Prove them wrong by building some amazing stuff.

Read the questions on scienceQA. They are hot and not hot dog type questions

Since November we have had as much growth if not more than I saw between June and November of last year. Doesn't seem like a plateau at all.

This post is no different than wingeing about cgi effects replacing some practical effects. You are way off base in my opinion. If first gen generative models have taught us anything it's that "human irrationality" is definitely automatable and perhaps it's easier to do than many other seemingly easier tasks.

Currently you can co-author with chatGPT and get a book of arbitrary length with enough revising, re-generations, and trial and error. The book will be ok, albeit cliche-ridden and surface level in a lot of areas but it'd be readable and worse books would certainly exist. Will we ever get to the point that we can do it with the click of a button? Probably. But that alone is super human. If you were told to write a book about a topic it would take you a lot of revising, rewriting, and trial/error too.