gizamo

gizamo t1_jdpko0i wrote

It's part of the ToS. This was a warning, if they don't stop (they won't), there will be lawsuits. The US companies will comply with the court rulings. The Chinese won't. And, that's how the Chinese win the AI wars. Game over, man. Game over.

This hyperbole brought to you by your friendly neighborhood bored drunk guy.

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gizamo t1_j9u3r9s wrote

Also, if a red state seceded, many/most of its Democrat voters would flee east or west, and probably not make it all the way to the coasts. So, states like UT, CO, AZ, NM, and all of Rust Belt would go blue quickly.

Edit: just imagine the exodus from Austin. That alone would easily flip AZ, NM, and probably GA.

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gizamo t1_j2780qj wrote

I was perma banned from r/politics for mocking obvious trolls from r/NoNewNormal brigading the sub spamming mis/disinformation. ¯⁠\⁠⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠⁠/⁠¯ over a year, and after a few appeal, I gave up. It's everywhere, and it's easier to mute the subs that enable it.

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gizamo t1_j251p86 wrote

Tell me you entirely missed my point with illogical bad-faith arguments.

> i can see you have no idea what hedge funds actually do.

I can see you have no idea how to view a person's history. I've been actively trading since the '90s, and I've been contracted as a programmer by multiple hedge funds.

> But with your logic lets just ban all oil and gas companies from operating in the US surely we'll be better off.

Jfc. Was that warm up mental gymnastics for you, or is the peak of your absurdity? Smh.

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gizamo t1_j22uflp wrote

...except, that's not at all what's happening here. Did you listen to their last conference call or read their 10-k? The semiconductor market is cyclical, and memory manufacturing is among the most cyclical of it. By all accounts, the down cycle is well underway, and the larger macro economics aren't helping things turn back up. Further, the CHIPS Act is about bringing back manufacturing, which it is doing quite well, even if some companies need to do layoffs in the short term. After the fabs are done, and semis get back on an up cycle, those jobs and many more will come back, too.

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gizamo t1_j22tx6p wrote

The semis downturn already happened, and most companies believe we're headed for a (deeper) recession next year. They can get thru the hard months/years ahead on a skeleton crew, and they'll have plenty of time to hire and train new workers after the new fab is ready.

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gizamo t1_izqmsju wrote

Theo had a pretty good breakdown of Copilot in its current state: https://youtu.be/yIZqIMNvqjg, which is certainly not replacing anyone yet.

My point was about its potential beyond the, as you correctly put it, "big ifs".

Fireship's quick tid but was also a pretty reasonable take, imo: https://youtu.be/eGE-tFalwpA it's also mostly inline with your opinion.

I also agree that the jobs of Jr. devs will largely be changed, and many won't be obsoleted. However, depending on those IFs, I could also see one Jr dev being able to do the work of a few or dozen Jr devs, maybe more...or, maybe not. Lol. Who knows.

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gizamo t1_iwwc8la wrote

Yep. The amount of disinformation about TPP was wild.

China and Russia ramped up their social media operations to do everything possible to turn public sentiment against it.

Interestingly, if China doesn't negotiate now, their bargaining position will only get weaker as western semiconductor companies move operations out of China to diversify their risk. I work in semis, and the difficulty of operating in China -- or even just selling components into China -- has become absurd. But, even tho we and most of the industry has taken a financial hit, very few people seem upset at the US, and I doubt anyone is really surprised by the increasing restrictions. Personally, I don't see the US easing restrictions. So, either China comes to the table in good faith, or the decoupling in tech continues.

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gizamo t1_iwvor2g wrote

The US CHIPS Act is getting companies to build fabs in the US. Those fabs will be mass producing chips starting in ~2024-2025. Until then, reduced output of Chinese chips would definitely affect the economy, particularly for industries that use lower-end chips (e.g. automobiles). Restrictions on manufacturing/assembly of devices in China would hurt more industries in the US, but most of that is negligible. If China were to attack Taiwan, that would tank the US economy probably worse than the great recession, but not as bad as the great depression. It would also probably start WWIII, and at that point, theoreticals go out the window. Literally no one knows what would happen at that point.

Exporting an algorithm means to share it outside the country of its origin.

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gizamo t1_iwvl1iy wrote

No one is playing nice again until there are significant legally-binding agreements in place -- starting with theft of IP and trade secrets, and probably ending with more open markets. China probably won't actually agree to much that the US wants because their culture genuinely does not care about IP, and the government definitely won't give up their controlled monopolies of various industries or allow US competition there.

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