AI at levels has been doubling quarterly since about 2015. The pandemic and the war may have slowed things down a bit. It will not matter as now it is back on track. So math. Let's say Jan 1 2023 is day one. AI is effectively human level give or take in productivity. (really now much better but let's say FSA) We get :
2023
Jan 1 = 1x
Apr 1=2x
July 1=4x
Oct1 =8x
2024
Jan 1 16x
Apr 1 =32x
July 1=64x
Oct 1=128X
2025
Jan 1=256X
Apr 1 =512x
July 1= 1024x
Oct 1 =2048x
2026
Intelligence Spike/Singularity/Unknowable
And this is why humans without major neuro mods CANNOT keep up or understand. This is not 5 years of progress by 2020 standards. This is what Kurzweil predicted for 2049 in 2004. It is going to be much sooner. I would look for tech exceeding Drexlers "Engines of Creation" levels in 2027.
PicoTech 2032 but maybe 2028-2029
FemtoTech 2040 (I hope, but maybe sooner, this is basically magic and messes with reality at levels I hate thinking about.)
glad777 t1_it7pl9q wrote
Reply to comment by AdditionalPizza in If you believe you can think exponentially, you might be wrong. Transformative AI is here, and it is going to radically change the world before the Singularity, and before AGI. by AdditionalPizza
AI at levels has been doubling quarterly since about 2015. The pandemic and the war may have slowed things down a bit. It will not matter as now it is back on track. So math. Let's say Jan 1 2023 is day one. AI is effectively human level give or take in productivity. (really now much better but let's say FSA) We get :
2023
Jan 1 = 1x
Apr 1=2x
July 1=4x
Oct1 =8x
2024
Jan 1 16x
Apr 1 =32x
July 1=64x
Oct 1=128X
2025
Jan 1=256X
Apr 1 =512x
July 1= 1024x
Oct 1 =2048x
2026
Intelligence Spike/Singularity/Unknowable
And this is why humans without major neuro mods CANNOT keep up or understand. This is not 5 years of progress by 2020 standards. This is what Kurzweil predicted for 2049 in 2004. It is going to be much sooner. I would look for tech exceeding Drexlers "Engines of Creation" levels in 2027.
PicoTech 2032 but maybe 2028-2029
FemtoTech 2040 (I hope, but maybe sooner, this is basically magic and messes with reality at levels I hate thinking about.)