jpercivalhackworth
jpercivalhackworth t1_j5ib03x wrote
Reply to comment by Forsaken-Indication in [D] How to deal with COVID-19-era data for time series forecasting? by PM_ME_YOUR_GIGI
Implicit in OP’s question is the apparent assumption that COVID is not a factor in projected demand. If that assumption is not true, then they may need to use the last 3 years as their baseline rather than trying to work around them.
jpercivalhackworth t1_j5h3cvx wrote
What makes you think that COVID is not going to impact the demand for your product?
jpercivalhackworth t1_j5kfcw6 wrote
Reply to comment by Forsaken-Indication in [D] How to deal with COVID-19-era data for time series forecasting? by PM_ME_YOUR_GIGI
You are reading a lot into OP's question that I'm not seeing. Yes, COVID is anomalous, no it's not clear that for the purposes of modeling demand for an unidentified product that it makes sense to disregard it, adjust it, or perform so other adjustment. Depending on the what demand is being modeled COVID is still a factor.
You would do well to reread what they actually wrote and what I wrote. Nowhere did I say that they should predict the next pandemic (cool if they could, but not relevant here). Considering that COVID deaths appear to be climbing in parts of the world and we don't know where the OP is modeling for, there are a lot of unknowns to address before a meaningful answer can be arrived at.