Yeah your question I thought was interesting. I'm not sure.

where your trouble is -- it's precisely the stuff out of control that the modern, objective person wouldn't waste time worrying about. Be it luck or religious or phantom mechanism, the expression supposes that by some unknown, unseen mechanism, the fates of people we "wish well" will be decided. Referencing that will always be interpretable as a form of mysticism. just a hunch.

That's why I tried to focus on something concrete.

You could say, "good health".

"May you get what you want". [or need]

huh maybe all non-negligent crimes should be considered thought crimes.

anyway, back to what you said; all punished thoughts have to be observed by some sort of expression. That expression could be setting a building on fire. That doesnt feel like a thought crime. But "liking a post" is the absolute minimal-additional-crime way of expressing an opinion that is punished later

so I side with, "yes it is thought policing"

preparedness and informed decision making be with you.