kifra101

kifra101 t1_j1vqojq wrote

Look, by the end of Roman empire, their coin had less than 1% of the original gold content then when they were at the peak of the empire. Their purchasing power collapsed to the point that they left the safety of the empire to move outside the walls and survive on the land to feed themselves. This left them open to invaders later on.

They had taxes then as well. In fact, they realized after taxation that they did not have enough to sustain the extravagances of the city which is why they started money dilution to begin with. Enormous government spending eventually leads to collapse. The point I am making here is that our spending and debt have reached a point now where it is near unsustainable. Raising the interest rate to 7% or higher is no longer a practical reality because our real debt is substantially greater than they were in the Volcker-era. No amount of money printing will bring back the purchasing power of the dollar unless something changes -> supply chains explode, technology advances massively, energy becomes near abundant, etc.

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kifra101 t1_j1vkqt3 wrote

You do realize that the government also owes debt and pretty much keeping it at those elevated levels will eventually lead to default? Sure, the short term debts can be rolled over to higher interest bearing debts but how long can you keep that going if tax revenues decrease (due to higher unemployment, lower demand, lower profits, etc.)? Even if Yellen does funny accounting on the back-end, the government still has to service those higher interest payments one way or another. We are not talking billions at that point. We are talking trillions in just interest payments before spending a single penny on the welfare, military, government jobs, etc.

The fed can keep raising rate but they defeat their main objective if the government defaults and people lose faith in the dollar overnight. We are risking hyperinflation if rates stay high for too long (because government defaults) or if the rates drop too quickly (turn on the money printer before we reach 2% inflation). The window for a soft(ish) landing is extremely narrow which is why folks are thinking it won't be attainable.

This is why people are putting money into alternate assets -> gold, buttcoin (lol), real estate. It's good that you are drawing from history but we have never been in this exact situation before so there isn't a clear roadmap. Shit can go south very quickly.

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