Countries need to realize there is no shortage of oil in the world. The shortage is in countries willing to work with oil companies. BP and Shell will evaluate all production sources and figure out where the most profit can be made. Investment dollars will flow to those countries.

Better start with China and India then. India is refining Russian oil and shipping it to California. Lots of US citizens are driving around today on gas refined from Russian oil via India. India and China are building refineries as the west shuts them down.

This is easy. If inflation is 8% and your risk free investments (government issued debt like T-Bonds, T-Bills are returning 4%), then it makes sense to spend the money you have. Here’s why, you are losing 4% every year by holding cash because 8-4=4. If you wait to spend that money for a year and invest in T-Bonds, you will have less money a year later when you cash out the T-Bond. High inflation discourages saving money and encourages people to spend all their money right now because if it losing value every single day. It encourages costly practices for businesses and consumers like hoarding supplies because it is cheaper to buy it today than it is tomorrow. This creates huge inefficiencies in the market and encourages a inflationary wage spiral as workers demand more raises to keep up with inflation, which is stripping away wages and savings.

OP is definitely onto something here. There’s a reason Warren Buffet has been buying Chevron and OXY.

I’m betting the terminal rate comes in around 9-10%. The fed still has lots of work to do.