Hmm.. Unfortunately it also seems a lot of stuff was released to the public in March.

Not like it was all discovered now.

Mostly gpt-4 and the attached tech (copilot(s) and plugins) plus papers.

But there were 3 years between gpt-3 and gpt-4, including the chatgpt 3.5 in between.

I am really scared about jobs and the economy in general.

So imho there is no risk of the paperclip machine being born for a good decade (that is ASI).

I agree , personally. But I am trying to upgrade to a Tesla( true story , already started the paperwork for leasing)

Say .. normally I get a UBI of 1000 USD /month.

I can't possibly get a new car lease for a 60k car.

They will just take it from my UBI ? Ok , then I need more money for my mansion (can't live in a studio bro) and more for my MacBook.

Of course I could just keep my old Leaf and just accept I can't afford it. But how does it feel to be the one with the old car and small house? You will get to appreciate stoicism fast ..

So sadly capitalism is the only way out .. that or learning hedonic adaptation ..

Wish there was a way for all of us to get our mansions and expensive cars and laptops/phones but somehow this has to be spread.

My brief summary : we will have a crisis of meaning if we don't have to work but we will recover and start doing stuff (voluntary) for the community.

Meanwhile I would continue to work if that was still possible.

Rents will go up, prices will go up.

People won't settle for their leafs and will want a shiny tesla.

Basic income will pay for rent and utilities and perhaps some cheap food.

There won't be a decent way out of this.

We need resource based economy and replicators.

Will it happen? Hope so.

Meanwhile I am holding on to my portfolio...

The answer is no. But it will raise the barrier to getting a junior level job even higher. And probably will require less programmers to get the same outcome. See that most fellow software developers underestimate its possible effect on the la our market.

Think that a similar gpt4 system will be 10 years (of tech experience) ahead and it will come by 2024.

Definitely not.. We will stop it because we fear things that we can't control. Unless the alignment problem is solved by then. Of course that will be the main story but behind closed doors some organisation's will try to go further and solve it.

That is the risk actually.. It will be same as nukes. Heavily regulated.