notausername86

notausername86 t1_iuana7f wrote

I don't think so. I mean potentially maybe. But I would think that the possibility of an EMP weapon being used, that would knock out internet access and fry any storage devices/cold wallets/hard drives and other devices would render crypto an unsafe bet.

In war time I think you would want a physical asset in your hands, be it gold and sliver, physical dollars, or even some other physical asset that would be worthy of trading for goods and services. I don't think it would be very smart to load up on anything that is exclusively digital.

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notausername86 t1_iua2ou6 wrote

Assuming that the markets would react the same/similar as it has in the past...

With the news of war, or news of nukes being used, the market as a whole would drop, pretty significantly as investors pull out to redistribute/ go cash as as fear started to take hold. As the news sinks in and things get spun up, Any sector not directly involved in the war machine, would continue to go down.

Sectors such as materials (metals, plastics), oil, food, manufacturing, and weapons production, would rally. The technology sector would also probably rally, or atleast specific companies within the tech sector. If we have access to the raw materials on our own soil, those companies that refine, or produce something from those meterials domesticlly, would rally. Things like semi conductors, electronics chips, computer manufacturers, would also probably explode as the deman for those items from the government would increase greatly (for the military) . Any company that gets a govt contact (or has an existing contract, like IBM), would divert resources to the war effort, and probably rally. This could be food, clothing, things of that nature. Assuming it's a world war, other companies may divert research/resources/production towards the war, and would see growth.

The retail markets (i.e. like Walmart, target) would more than likely decrease as citizens would probably stop alot of spending due to an uncertain future.

This is all assuming that the US does not take a direct attack on our own soil. Since it's never happened, not really, I would be taking just a random guess, but I would assume the markets would react very poorly to an attack on US soil.

But all that said. I hope we don't get there. Www3 will more than likely send us back to the stone age and may end up wiping out a very large majority of the population. . I can't imagine the bloodshed havoc, and destruction that militaries in this day and age could cause with the weapons and technology available to us now. It would truely be the apocalypse for all intents and purposes.

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notausername86 t1_iu9z2fx wrote

Yea, well kinda. Atleast from what I understand from the research I've done and how it works is like this. I could be totally off base but I've been told that this is exactly the reason why you don't Wana use brokerages such as webull and rh

So what happens in actual real life is that these brokages own a pool of shares of some of the biggest/largest/popular/in demand stocks. So for example let's just use apple. So a brokerage like webull "owns", just for sake of ease and understanding, 500, 000 shares of apple. So then you, as a retail investor using that brokerage wants to buy 500 shares of apple. On the other end of that, another one of their customers wants to sell 500 shares of apple (or several others using the brokerage), or they themselves can sell it to you from their pool, so instead of pulling the shares from an exchange, they pull it from themselves, and thus can set it up so the buying/selling of those shares doesn't cause a jump in the price of shares, because those shares are being done intentally, rather than externally. When you buy these shares from these brokerages you don't actually "own" the shares, you just have the right to buy and sell them (if that makes sense). This is the theory behind why people who were holding gme were direct registration their shares, as when they do that, they by regulation do own the shares (and thus these brokerages can not loan those shares out or manuplate the data)

As I understand it, brokerages where you pay a fee (like fidelity or tdameratrade) doesnt work like this, and when you purchase shares on those brokerages you do own the shares, and this is why you pay a fee (or atleast again, thats what ive been told) and they do get them directly from the exchanges (thus effecting the price of the stock). It's a bit more complex than that, I think the data of the sell still gets recorded in the level 2+ data and if the demand surpasses their supply they que up the order to add to their exsisting pool of shares, and I think that depending on the ticker that the order does get routed to an exchange. It's all very complex, and I don't know if I fully understand how it works. Maybe someone else can chime in and give more details or tell me where I'm wrong.

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notausername86 t1_iu5hian wrote

Yea that is part of my reasoning in my thought process. I also think late nov/ early Dec b/c depending on the outcome of the elections, there will be a couple weeks of sideways trading, or potentially a rally so whom ever wins can go "see, the economy is great now!" Before it just tanks. Also earnings have been lack luster and I doubt the earnings in Nov are gonna be much better

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notausername86 t1_iu4wv96 wrote

I don't think so. I think we still have a long way to fall. I don't even think the markets have seen all that much pain...not yet anyways...

I think people are not listening to j pow. He clearly said he isn't going to stop until inflation is under control, and it's not even close to being under control. He clearly said he wants to "destory demand" and demand is still there. I understand people are getting the idea that the fed is going to pivot, because "other countries are doing it" but that goes against everything j pow has been saying for the last year. I think a pivot now would destory the feds credibility, and in the longer term if they pivot now, the underlying issues are still there and we are just continuing to kick the can down the road.

I think we are going to see a a general uptrend over the next week until the 2ed. Then I honestly think that a 100 bps is likely, and then the market is going to inexplicably rally, right until midterms, and then we will continue the downtrend. I think the big crash will occur sometime after midterms. I'm projecting the end of Nov beginning of Dec.

But I'm just a regard. So who knows.

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