ovirt001

ovirt001 t1_j6f98oa wrote

Although it really should be, it isn't a blanket ban on China receiving US chips. Specific companies connected to China's military are prohibited from receiving the chips (granted in a country like China this is meaningless because all companies are subject to the whims of the state). Chinese companies only assemble the final product and this is slowly changing as production moves to Vietnam and India.

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ovirt001 t1_j56x5dx wrote

There are multiple insurmountable problems for China but none will lead to civil war. China's populace has been designed to be subservient. Anyone with the will to fight was either killed or exiled. Over the next few decades we'll see China implode as the rest of the world moves to other countries for manufacturing. This will force the communist party to close the country off again.

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ovirt001 t1_j56wjqn wrote

With private industry the US has already effectively won the race. Add in the fact that private industry can work with other countries (except China) and there was never any contest.

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ovirt001 OP t1_j246wmn wrote

> SpaceX launched the first batch of a new generation of Starlink satellites into orbit early Wednesday (Dec. 28) and nailed a rocket landing at sea to mark a record 60th flight of the year. > A Falcon 9 rocket topped with 54 upgraded Starlink internet satellites — the first generation 2 (Gen2) versions of the SpaceX fleet — lit up the predawn sky with a smooth launch at 4:34 a.m. EST (0934 GMT) from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. > "Under our new license, we are now able to deploy satellites to new orbits that will add even more capacity to the network," Jesse Anderson, a SpaceX production and engineering manager, said during live launch commentary. "Ultimately, this enables us to add more customers and provide faster service, particularly in areas that are currently oversubscribed."  > About eight minutes after liftoff, the Falcon 9 first stage returned to Earth with a landing on the SpaceX drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas in the Atlantic Ocean, where rough recovery weather threatened to delay the launch. The touchdown marked a successful end to SpaceX's 60th launch of SpaceX in 2022, nearly doubling the 31 launches set as a SpaceX record in 2021. > The Falcon 9 first stage on this mission made its 11th flight with Wednesday's launch. The booster previously flew five Starlink missions, launched two U.S. GPS satellites, the Nilesat 301 commercial satellite and carried two different private astronaut crews on the Inspiration4 and Ax-1 missions, SpaceX has said.  > The company will also attempt to recover the two payload fairing halves that made up the Falcon 9's nose cone, which had both flown before, for later reuse, Anderson said. 

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ovirt001 t1_j1zn0p6 wrote

If all that is needed is some generic set of substances, it's a huge improvement over existing manufacturing technology. That said, the underlying science has been proven so it's not completely outlandish:
https://www.inverse.com/science/einstein-light-matter

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ovirt001 t1_j1zcsc4 wrote

3D printers are primitive replicators. Scientists have managed to make ones that print on the nanoscale so we really aren't terribly far off from true replicators.
https://engineering.purdue.edu/ME/News/2021/no-more-jagged-edges-nanoscale-3d-printing-that-is-fast-smooth-and-repeatable

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ovirt001 t1_j1zcfzo wrote

I would say AI is the current example of this. It's developing faster than we know how to put it to use and we'll likely spend the next several decades implementing and improving it. The capacity for it to speed development of other new technologies is massive. We may even see fusion in the next 10 years thanks to AI.
I suspect AI will enable many other breakthrough technologies such as ultra high density batteries, fusion (as mentioned), nanotech, customizing humans through genomics, and massive advances in material science (which will bring untold advancements).

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ovirt001 t1_iymddgg wrote

Eventually. It would be in the US' best interest to keep that a secret since knowledge of it would be extremely destabilizing. Russia and China would panic if they knew such a thing existed and act (even more) irrationally.

Granted that's assuming such a system does not already exist. The "Star Wars" program from the 80s was officially cancelled but the work continued into the 2000s from what we know of Lockheed Martin's MKV-L:
https://youtu.be/KBMU6l6GsdM
Also worth mention is that the cadence of missile defense tests is not what one would expect from a country trying to fully test the system. It's possible a high failure rate is reported to reassure international opponents.

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