robotical712 t1_je57v5v wrote

He has a point though. If you detect an event your models say is “once in 10k years” in the first few decades you’re even looking, odds are they’re more frequent than your models suggest. Obviously, it’s only one data point, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they wind up being more common than predicted.


robotical712 t1_jdjcmn1 wrote

ESA's problem is that, while it has 22 member nations, two of them provide more than half its funding and its primary contractor is majority owned by one of the two. It doesn't really matter what the Director General thinks of geo-return, he's ultimately beholden to ESA's member nations, and they're happy with it.


robotical712 t1_j2a90p3 wrote

On the contrary, Italy staying neutral means Austria doesn’t transfer most of its best troops from the east to invade Italy. Thus either the Brusilov offensive doesn’t happen or is blunted. Without Brusilov, Austria isn’t effectively destroyed as a military power, Germany isn’t forced to cancel Verdun to bail them out and Romania doesn’t join the Entente.