I'm sorry for being dismissive. I understand your question and I haven't done a good job getting my point across. There are NYMEX natural gas futures contracts that are falling, but you also need the basis piece (the cost of moving the physical gas molecules through pipelines) to get a complete price. So delivered wholesale gas is gas futures + basis futures. Even when gas futures fall, basis futures have remained elevated. I've been trying to find a source but basis futures priced are not available for free (you'd need a Bloomberg Machine or ICE subscription). Here is an article that has a graph of pricing for the 23-24 winter season: https://www.nrg.com/insights/energy-education/purchasing-strategies-for-new-england-market-dynamics.html

Bottom line is when you see the headlines that gas prices are falling, it's not reflective of what the real delivered price is in New England.

Here's an article I spent 5 seconds searching for on Google: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/haynesville-output-to-top-16-bcf-d-as-total-lower-48-production-continues-to-climb/

They talk about exactly the same phenomenon I am and even had a nice graph. I'm actually surprised you 'haven't been able to find any evidence' since it's all over search 'new england natural gas basis'.

The evidence is the higher prices lol. Default rates are usually bid out for a year at a time: https://www.maine.gov/mpuc/regulated-utilities/electricity/standard-offer-rates/cmp

My description of the market is glossing over quite a bit of nuance that I don't really care to actually get into. Source: I've worked as an energy consultant in New England for over a decade.

There are liquid natural gas terminals in New England that would normally be adding gas supply at mid-points in the pipelines. And the prices paid at those terminals are normally very high compared to pipeline gas, which they needed to be to attract loads here instead of other terminals around the world. Now with the war in Ukraine, LNG terminals in Europe are paying far higher rates than prices in New England, so ships are going there instead.

Not necessarily, basis pricing and pipeline capacity into New England has been an issue since 2012. Retirement of older nuclear plants and oil plants have left gas plants as the biggest source. Heating and process loads in the region have switched to gas from residual and diesel in the last decade leaving us even more constrained. Basis can be 4-5x the price of gas futures.

Edit: FWIW I support a consumer owned CMP, I'm just trying to add some understanding of the market itself. Consumer owner CMP would still be at the mercy of these issues.

The cost of gas itself doesn't make up the entire price of gas. End users (including generators) need to pay for space on the regional pipelines to move gas into the region (called 'basis'). Since our pipelines don't have enough capacity to move gas into New England, the actual cost of delivery gas can be much higher than gas futures.

Haha yes, you still got the main point which is that gas clears the market and sets the price.

It is definitely not mostly hydroelectric. You can see our current grid mix any time at https://www.iso-ne.com/.

80% is also wrong, but NG is the marginal fuel, so any fluctuations in the gas market end up setting rates in New England. Also the issue isn't just the price of gas itself, but the 'basis' price which is the cost of purchasing space on pipelines to move the gas to New England. We don't have enough space on pipelines to heat the region and run electric generators, so prices spike during the winter.