sanfrantokyotron

sanfrantokyotron t1_j6peiz4 wrote

Google ads typically sell on an auction model, so Youtube doubling ads does not equal double revenue if advertisers keep their budget constant. Google adding a subscription fee to GSuite may help, but it also could just push users back to Microsoft given that Office 365 is better than GSuite. Ultimately Google's earnings are mostly going to depend on how much companies spent on advertising, which typically gets reduced during recession environments.

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sanfrantokyotron t1_j6egvy3 wrote

Although raising interest rates may result in more people/countries buying government debt vs other investment options, the higher interest rate also negatively impacts the US government by increasing the amount of interest they must pay on that debt. The US is starting to already encounter an issue with this, as a 5% interest rate requires about $1 trillion of interest payments on the US debt which is equivalent to 33% of annual tax revenue. If the government attempted to raise interest rates to trigger war, these interest costs would go up further which would reduce funds available for other government expenditures (like the military costs of war).

Additionally, raising interest rates would likely tank the US economy. If people choose to put their funds in T-bills vs other investments, businesses will have a harder time getting funding which will cause them to start laying off employees. As a result, a world war triggered by the Fed is unlikely as it would inflict significant damage not just on the world but also the US. This is sort of like the argument that China intentionally created COVID-19...why would any country take an action to hurt others that equally hurts themselves? There are many other ways to start a war that would have less collateral damage.

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