snowswolfxiii t1_jddl4xf wrote

Reply to comment by PurpleDancer in Maine's Energy future by mainething

For what it's worth, since you've extrapolated on your initial comment, it has become starkly apparent that you've put more thought into all of this than your original comment suggested.

It is a very tricky and nuanced subject, which only compounds the moment it leaves a vacuum and starts interacting with literally everything else outside of 'power production security'.

While I hear you on not being qualified to draw conclusions; I also find it to be a dangerous slope to leave all of the thinking to those specialized in it. As you mentioned, they have their own biases, agendas, heuristics, and blind spots; and they always seem to have a bit more sway on policy than voters. (This should be a bit of a universal rule, imo.

Lastly, I have my own biases against solar and wind, largely because of the zealotry surrounding them. I'm seeing it dwindle, thankfully, but for a while there was a vast majority of Pro-Greens that would ardently deny S/W's own eco and climate impacts. (Among many other negatives in the background of the industry.)

Lastly, I do think Maintenance, construction, and all surrounding costs could be considered. As well as the spacial costs for recycling/discarding non-salvageable products. (Solar panels, wind blades, nuclear waste, carbon waste, etc etc)

I have more to add, but my break is over, so I'll cut this short. Hopefully as we move forward, we can figure out the best way to approach these issues. Thanks for a great exchange! Peace and prosperity to you.


snowswolfxiii t1_jdcnn89 wrote

Reply to comment by PurpleDancer in Maine's Energy future by mainething

I think the reason you're getting downvoted is that 'the numbers' don't really conclude anything. Literally the moment you read beyond the numbers, it becomes apparent that it's all just on-paper theory and doesn't mean anything.

Did you read the massive disclaimer?

>Real life costs can diverge significantly from those estimates.


>Olkiluoto block 3, which achieved first criticality in late 2021 had an overnight cost to the construction consortium (the utility paid a fixed price agreed to when the deal was signed of only 3.2 billion euros) of €8.5 billion and a net electricity capacity of 1.6 gigawatt or €5310 per kilowatt of capacity.[16] Meanwhile Darlington Nuclear Generating Station in Canada had an overnight cost of CA$5.117 billion for a net electric capacity of 3512 Megawatts or CA$1,457 per Kilowatt of capacity. The oft cited figure of CA$14.319 billion - which works out to CA$4,077 per kilowatt of capacity - includes interest (a particularly high cost in this case as the utility had to borrow at market rates and had to absorb the cost of delays in construction) and is thus not an "overnight cost".


>The first German Offshore Wind Park Alpha Ventus Offshore Wind Farm with a nameplate capacity of 60 MW cost €250 million (after an initial estimate of €190 million).[21] In 2012 it produced 268 Gigawatt-hours of electricity, achieving a capacity factor of just over 50%.[22] If the overnight cost is calculated for the nameplate capacity, it works out to €4167 per Kilowatt whereas if one takes into account the capacity factor, the figure needs to be roughly doubled.


>The Lieberose Photovoltaic Park - one of the largest in Germany - had a nameplate capacity at opening of 52.79 Megawatt and cost some €160 million to build[28][29] or €3031 per kilowatt. With a yearly output of some 52 Gigawatt-hours (equivalent to just over 5.9 Megawatts) it has a capacity factor just over 11%. The €160 million figure was again cited when the solar park was sold in 2010.[30]
>The world's largest solar farm to date (2022) in Rajasthan, India - Bhadla Solar Park - has a total nameplate capacity of 2255 Megawatts and cost a total of 98.5 billion Indian rupees to build.[31] This works out to roughly 43681 rupees per kilowatt.


>As can be seen by these numbers, costs vary wildly even for the same source of electricity from place to place or time to time and depending on whether interest is included in total cost. Furthermore, capacity factors and the intermittency of certain power sources further complicate calculations. Another issue that is often omitted in discussions is the lifespan of various power plants - some of the oldest hydropower plants have existed for over a century, and nuclear power plants going on five or six decades of continuous operation are no rarity. However, many wind turbines of the first generation have already been torn down as they can no longer compete with more modern wind turbines and/or no longer fit into the current regulatory environment. Some of them were not even twenty-five years old. Solar panels exhibit a certain aging, which limits their useful lifetime, but real world data does not yet exist for the expected lifetime of the latest models.

Edit to conclude: Not to discount you coming back and posting this. Greatly appreciated and respected that you did!


snowswolfxiii t1_jdckem1 wrote

I agree that private companies aren't doing too great, but is surrendering power infrastructure and authority to the government really a huge upgrade?

Doesn't that also open up the door to volatility around elections or political turmoil? I agree by surrendering it to Maine gov instead of Fed gov that it's a little less sketch, but at the same time, is Maine really that much more stable than the rest of the country?


snowswolfxiii t1_jdcj0ka wrote

A combination is key, I think. Renewables have the obvious pro of being renewable, but there's no denying their own climate and eco risks, let alone the fact that they aren't very efficient at generating said power.

While Nuclear is long lasting, powerful, and extremely efficient; the cons are obvious.

It's too bad we weren't able to create a couple of sub-orbital nuclear power plants. If we had a way to transfer the energy to earth, moving nuclear power off-planet could be a huge win. If something goes wrong, just kick that baby out to the cosmos and drop another quadrillion on a new one. Obviously nothing could go wrong.


snowswolfxiii t1_j5k9ryp wrote

I didn't want to out Leno's, but because it already was, hard agree. I don't know if Sr. is still operating it, but friendliest guy in the world, you absolutely get what you pay for in fill and quality, and the atmosphere feels like a timewarp to simpler and better times. To this day, I've never found a place as good as Leno's.


snowswolfxiii t1_j5jpevx wrote

I don't think what you're describing is really rurality. While it is true that rural NH towns tend to get a lot of through traffic for Mt Wash, Laconia, Dartmouth, etc; the same could be said for a lot of rural Maine. D-FC is a great, unique, example. However, a bigger contributing factor, in my opinion, is the fact that it's in the middle of the state, and not that it's rural. As I'm sure you know well enough, plenty of rural Maine gets a good bit of traffic come summer time.

Fryeburg, Ossipee Valley (Porter/Cornish) gets traffic for Conway, Fryeburg fair. Get up towards Carthage and Weld and you've got Mt Blue, Loon Lake, and Bigelow. Acadia pulls traffic through most of the state. NMW and Katahdin for Millinotcket, Medway, and Ashland.

And lastly, even with D-FC, it's just a short drive to Skowhegan or even Bangor to get some fancy eating. Certainly less than the 45 minute threshold.

I would also argue that a lot of folks in Houlton probably do cross over in Canada pretty regularly.

No arguments about VT, though. Nailed that one.


snowswolfxiii t1_iu6ur9n wrote

Just moved 6 hours from my previous location. 350 miles. Multiple states, to a small town that I've never heard of.
I was having a ladder delivered. Guy shows up just before 7 AM, but I have no clue who's in the yard, so I go out to greet them. Quickly becomes apparent that he's delivering, and so the confusion starts wearing off. Once it does, a new confusion sets in... This guy looks damn familiar. I just can't shake how hauntingly familiar his face and speech patterns are.
So as the business transaction winds down, I can't stop myself from pointing out that he looks extremely familiar. He chuckles and says "Must just have one of those faces. I only moved here a year ago, so I doubt it,"
But mid way through him saying that, something clicked, I was sure I knew this guy.
I say "Did you move from (our old state)?" But I'm thinking to myself that even if he did, it doesn't explain how I know this guy.
But sure enough, he responds "Woah, that's crazy. Yeah,"
And then it really clicked.
He worked at the same company that I had just been at for years.


snowswolfxiii t1_iqy2158 wrote

Biden administration has said that they have a hard floor of 80$ for selling oil. The closer we are to that, the less they'll be selling, which is a big factor in this dip.
Nfa, but I can totally see 100$ per barrel incoming this winter.