theabominablewonder t1_j9zjd53 wrote

I think people have always moved towards richer experiences that more closely emulate face to face contact. Moving from written word, to phone, to video calling.. an immersive experience that allows full natural gesturing is a step up. All the VR side will take a while to develop.

Web3 (as a general theme, allowing decentralised/personal ownership of data/assets) is easier, but the current platforms are not very user friendly. I think only now there's a few good tech demos on an experience for NFT ownership that would be considered user friendly (ie low fees, easy to use, good security - no high fees, random contract messages no one understands etc).

All the current experiences inform the industry how to make it more user friendly and all the scams, exploits, etc, of NFTs/crypto, essentially feed into further development so it is better the next time around.

I think we will have another bubble where stuff is easier for consumers - owning and operating a wallet without easily being scammed would be a nice start :) - but it will still be a way off what the eventual solution will look like.


theabominablewonder t1_j9zbemc wrote

It was too early yes, but then the VCs and retail pile in, speculate on everything Web3 being massive and then the bubble bursts. Some of the money is taken by scammers or failed businesses, but some money is left in the ecosystem to develop it so in a decade it is much closer to a 'consumer friendly' experience with actual use cases built around it. It's generally a good thing for the industry as a bubble attracts investment. A lot of people will get burnt by jumping on the hype train though.

And yes you are right on the technology. I believe the likes of Tim Sweeney at Epic see it as a 10+ year time horizon because the experience needs to be a LOT better than it is currently. I think that's a reasonable timeline really. One or two more bubbles before it gets there, no doubt.


theabominablewonder t1_j9y4pme wrote

Saying web3 is dead is the same as the OP complained about, people claiming AI isn’t going anywhere. We’ve only seen the early stages of a lot of disruptive technologies, metaverse/web3 included.

One thing that does happen though is that we get investment bubbles where VCs jump into the latest trend to try and be first, and those first waves of speculation always pop. But that money that VCs have thrown in does contribute to the development of that area as an industry.

A lot of VCs won’t make anything from AI, web3, additive manufacturing, blockchain etc, but their funds would have been used to push those things forwards.

You are right in their behaviour - if VCs are all shouting about something, then it may be better to look the other way, because by that point they are scraping the barrel on good investments trying to get in on the hype. The industry/tech itself can still be a legitimate, disruptive industry as a whole.


theabominablewonder t1_j9y3f80 wrote

It is the same with all disruptive future tech. No one sees the future until it’s here. The only time people seem to get it is when it’s affecting something directly for them personally. I know a lot of medical staff gave up on a career studying for radiology because they think AÍ/ML will handle a lot of the job in the future. So they saw the risk there because it directly impacted their choice on what to study for the next five years.


theabominablewonder t1_j21qgxc wrote


theabominablewonder t1_j1tza4k wrote

or in pirate terms..

Avast ye scurvy landlubbers! It be understandable to be suspicious of certain types of posts on the high seas of the internet, especially if they be seemin' too good to be true. But beware, not all long, polite, and articulate posts be necessarily suspicious or untrustworthy. Some scallywags genuinely enjoy writin' and expressin' themselves clearly, and may simply have a lot to say on a particular topic.

It be always a good idea to be critical of the information ye encounter online, and to fact-check it before sharin' it or relyin' on it. But also, approach online content with an open mind and not to jump to conclusions based on superficial characteristics such as the length or politeness of a post. That be all I be havin' to say on the matter. Now shoo, I be busy plannin' me next heist."


theabominablewonder t1_j1tz6zx wrote

It's not a big deal either way, but some people might be suspicious of long, polite, and articulate posts on Reddit. I guess it's fine to be a little suspicious, but it's not like it matters that much. Just be careful about what you believe online, I guess. Don't take my word for it, though. Do your own research or something.


theabominablewonder t1_ixq32o9 wrote

There’s some interesting reviews on youtube. You have to have a prepared bed that’s fairly flat and well organised with protectors for where you have plants growing. You have to put a barrier around its working area. Also you occasionally need to clear the wheels and if it rains, it can stop working in wet mud. So it’s a gimmick really - a lot of work to have a suitable area for it. It will work in the right conditions though. Also the sale price seems to be its usual price.


theabominablewonder t1_ivjaa3g wrote

We are thinking very much in terms of western civilisation and the digitisation of modern living - which frankly needs to happen at some scale to reduce the resource requirements we place on the environment. However we also need to consider developing nations. The human race is not a conglomerate blob of humanity but people living in extreme luxury and extreme poverty and everything in between. For something like a conclusion to occur, you need to first have a convergence of living standards. This means either a convergence to everyone having a high standard of living and no wants, or a convergence to a low standard of living and many unfulfilled wants.

A convergence to a high standard of living is only likely where an AGI is centrally planning all aspects of life for humanity, it is non discriminant and does not favour current western economies as one life = one life. It will focus more resource onto developing nations to improve standards of living and only once we have a convergence can it then consider advancing humanity to a fully digitised mode of living. Western economies will likely resist such a scenario as it will make them relatively less powerful.

Alternatively it could take a view of capitalism and enriching those that control any AI, which will mean a greater divergence in living standards and significant imbalances in power that fully enshrine current power balances. In such a world you may have the extreme rich funnelling resources and wealth under their control and many living in poverty. It would mean the suppression of most of humanity and whilst the extreme rich may be able to live in a digital realm, the rest will only do so for escapism. The second scenario, majority are subsistence living and do not reach out to the stars and expand. The ultra rich may consider doing so, but their footprint is minimal and they have all wants met in a digital space and so no need to explore the physical universe. This is a collapse for 99.99% of humanity and servitude to the 0.01%. We’re probably close to this timeline.

Over time we also are pulling up the drawbridge for a neo-neolithic age to advance to current standards. Many of todays industries had to evolve through the stages of fossil fuel led production. In the future this won’t be an option available as any easily accessible fossil fuels would have been used up. Potentially neo-neolithic civilisation get stuck at the stage of hydroelectric power generation and struggles to advance beyond that. If the ultra rich do decide to leave us and explore the stars then the rest of humanity are stuck at low tech and this is what occurs throughout the galaxy (essentially the great filter is resource depletion). No one is looking up any more as they are scurrying in the dirt looking to use whatever has been left for them to fight over.


theabominablewonder t1_irs3oet wrote

If you evolved cows an infinitesimal amount of times then eventually you will get a flying cow.

When the singularity is reached and each evolution is more complex and more powerful and they can make these evolutionary leaps in code in an exponentially smaller amount of time then you get to the cow flying stage in a very short period of time.