v10climbz t1_iug85m9 wrote

I wanna say that you’re right but there’s still so much liquidity in the system influencing price action in stocks. Unemployment is fairly low and yes P/E ratios are getting a little crazy but how much longer the market is gonna stay in a disillusioned fever is anyone’s guess. Honestly it could be years unfortunately. For some reason everyone is bracing for a recession but wall street keeps posting gains. Sometimes when everyone is expecting something you should look into the opposite less popular view. Maybe the bull run will continue? Not so much for the real economy, but at least on the street.


v10climbz OP t1_iug4r33 wrote

You’re not wrong but if companies are locking in profits at 60 dollars a barrel and the lowest WTI has gone in the last sixth months is 78 with a high of 122ish. Supply is the key factor in oil price I.e Brent Crude or WTI. There’s a bunch of oils but these are the two benchmarks. With inflation and OPEC+ supply cuts oil prices should stay at a level where massive profits can be made. OPEC tried to destroy the American shale producers years ago. The flooded the market and many American oil companies went bankrupt. But, recently OPEC has decided if you cannot beat them join them. The oil cartels including OPEC, XOM and BP don’t wanna exacerbate their reserves they wanna influence demand to a point where everyone in the energy sector is happy. That’s my hypothesis.


v10climbz OP t1_iufvpa9 wrote

Reading this comment is beautiful. Very rarely do come across someone on Reddit that understands commodity pricing or the energy industry. Hats off to you good sir. Yeah the big boys aren’t doing a lot of new drilling but rather they’re taking profits from existing wells. Which is fine by me. They’ll keep crushing revenue and cash flow streams if oil stays at the price. I mean there’s some new drilling going on but companies are paying of debts and waiting to see what happens in the coming elections. There’s plenty of oil left in the ground. Just look at the Baker-Hughes inland rig count to get a scope of things. It’s nothing like pre-covid times but there’s some new exploration. Private equity and investors are just much more hesitant with handing out cash for new drilling operations. But, I think oils at a price and will stay at a price that makes sense for upstream/midstream suppliers. Rig count should stay steady


v10climbz OP t1_iufirtf wrote

Natural gas isn’t what this company specializes in. They specialize in light sweet crude oil. A warmer winter could actually keep oil prices higher due too more traveling from point a/b. I’m not as concerned about LNG prices all the models for this year predict oil to hover around 95$ a barrel. If oil falls bellow 75 a barrel this winter I’ll send you 100$ take the bet